Central American Politics

Femicide in Guatemala (2001-2011)

2012-02-01T08:59:00.000-05:00

President Otto Perez Molina recently formed a "task force to combat femicide" in Guatemala. Nobel prize winners Rigoberta Menchu and Jody Williams are traveling the region to help bring attention to the intentional killing of women in Guatemala and beyond. And the British Ambassador is organizing human chains around volcanoes. I hope that these three actions are going to help reduce femicide in Guatemala in the region.

In an article for IPS, Danilo Valladares cites statistics from the Presidential Commission Against Racism in Guatemala that indicates femicides increased from 675 in 2010 to 705 in 2011. I think that they are using INACIF numbers which includes murders and other violent deaths but I can't be certain.

However, when one looks at the National Civilian Police's statistics on murder over the last decade one sees that femicide more than doubled from 2001 to 2009 and then has declined in both 2010 and 2011. The increase and then decrease in murders doesn't look at the different from those of men.

This isn't to belittle the murders of Guatemalan women as a problem. It's just to point out that, according to the Guatemalan National Civilian Police's (PNC) murder statistics, the number of women murdered decreased in 2010 and 2011 and that's not even controlling for population increases.

Update - Murder by gender in Guatemala (2010-2011)

2012-01-31T12:23:00.002-05:00

I have my first class of the semester in a few minutes, but I thought this was interesting. Here's my lesson for today - don't post right before class, come back after class and double-check everything. I read 2010's numbers for women incorrectly. In 2010, 695 women were murdered. That means the number of women declined from their highs in 2009 in both 2010 and 2011.

According to the National Civilian Police, 5,681 people were murdered in Guatemalan in 2011. Of that total, 5,050 victims were male and 631 were female. Women comprised 11% of all murder victims in 2011.

~~In 2010, the PNC recorded 5,906 murders throughout the country. Of that total, 5,265 involved male victims and 625 695 female victims. Women comprised about the same percentage in 2010, 10.6%.~~

~~Therefore, overall murders dropped 3.8% (from 5906 to 5,681), male victims declined 4.1% (from 5,265 to 5,050), and female victims increased by 1% (from 625-631).decreased from 695 to 631.~~

~~Why have authorities been so much more successful at reducing male victims?~~

According to the National Civilian Police, 5,681 people were murdered in Guatemalan in 2011. Of that total, 5,050 victims were male and 631 were female. Women comprised 11% of all murder victims in 2011.

In 2010, the PNC recorded 5,906 murders throughout the country. Of that total, 5,265 involved male victims and 695 female victims. Women comprised about 11.8% in 2010.

Therefore, overall murders dropped 3.8% (from 5906 to 5,681), male victims declined 4.1% (from 5,265 to 5,050), and female victims decreased 9.2% from 695 to 631 (720 died in 2009).

The PNC's statistics from from Carlos Mendoza's blog.

Funes pulls from the military ranks once again

2012-01-30T07:41:00.002-05:00

In a new sign of themilitarization of public security in El Salvador, President Mauricio Funesrecently named a new retired military general, Francisco Ramon Salinas Rivera,to head the National Civil Police (PNC). Salinas Rivera recently retired as viceminister of defense in order to sidestep a law that requires the country's policedirection to be a civilian.

For now, my reaction to Salinas Rivera's appointment isbasically the same as David Munguia Payes' appointment.

Funes does not appear to besomeone who cares what the FMLN, civil society, the Catholic Church, andinternational solidarity activists say about his decisions. He has shown thisin the past with his use of the armed forces on the streets of San Salvador andwith Decree 743 that temporarily neutered the Constitutional Court. Funes doeswhat he thinks is right. On the other hand, Munguía Payés' appointment couldindicate that Funes does not have a deep group of individuals in which heplaces much trust. Funes might have felt that he had no option but to stickwith Munguía Payés over the objections of much of Salvadoran society.

Personally, I think that Munguía Payés' appointment sets badprecedent. I am not worried so much about him as I am the fact that hisappointment opens the door for additional appointments of former militaryofficials to head state institutions. That's not a path that anyone wishes tosee El Salvador travel down.

I don't necessarily have a problemwith Funes removing FMLN loyalists from positions of authority. That'shis prerogative as president. However, he needs to have some peopleoutside of the military that he trusts, doesn't he?

I was and still am asupporter of Funes. (Would you prefer the country run by a PresidentRodrigo Avila?) That doesn't mean that I am not disappointed and hadhope for in nearly three years in office.

Peace Corps Conversations

2012-01-29T22:46:00.000-05:00

Even if Peace Corps is cutting back in Central America, that doesn't mean that it still isn't a great opportunity.

In Honduras, a Mess Made in the U.S.

2012-01-27T09:03:00.000-05:00

Dana Frank, a historyprofessor and the University of California, Santa Cruz, has an op-ed in the NewYork Times on Honduras this morning. It's well worth the read.

IT’S time to acknowledge the foreign policy disaster thatAmerican support for the PorfirioLobo administration in Honduras hasbecome. Ever since the June 28, 2009, coup that deposed Honduras’sdemocratically elected president, JoséManuel Zelaya, the country has been descending deeper into a humanrights and security abyss. That abyss is in good part the State Department’smaking.

The headlines have been full of horror stories aboutHonduras. According to the United Nations, it now has the world’s highestmurder rate, and San Pedro Sula, its second city, is more dangerous than CiudadJuárez, Mexico, a center for drug cartel violence.

Much of the press in the United States has attributed thisviolence solely to drug trafficking and gangs. But the coup was what threw openthe doors to a huge increase in drug trafficking and violence, and it unleasheda continuing wave of state-sponsored repression.

I'm just not sure whatthe title is. On the webpage, it says "In Honduras, A Mess Made in the U.S."However, the link has a title of "In Honduras, A Mess Helped by theU.S." There's a pretty big difference between the two. One obviouslyconcludes that the US is the primary actor behind today's violence. In thesecond, the US is a secondary actor whose action, or inaction, has helpedcontribute to the insecurity in the country today.

The US role in Argentina's dirty war is also the focus of Ex-diplomat: US knew about Argentina baby thefts. A former U.S. diplomat testified Thursday that Americanofficials knew Argentina's military regime was taking babies from dead orjailed dissidents during its "dirty war" against leftists in the1970s, and it appeared to be a systematic effort at the time.

Elliot Abrams testified by videoconference from Washingtonin the trial of former dictators Jorge Videla and Reynaldo Bignone and othermilitary and police figures accused of organizing the theft of babies fromwomen who were detained and then executed in the 1976-1983 junta's torturecenters.

Abrams said U.S. officials were aware that some children hadbeen taken and then illegally adopted by families loyal to the regime.

In this article, the US encouraged the regime to usethe Roman Catholic Church to return the babies to their families, but theregime refused.

In some ways it reminds me of the situation inHonduras. Following the 2009 coup and Zelaya’s removal from the country, the USencouraged the parties to find an amicable settlement that would lead to Zelaya’sreturn to the country. Our allies in Honduras, in this case those who carriedout the coup, said no. The events were obviously a little more complicated thanthat, but the US’s failure to take a stronger stand in Honduras and Argentinamakes us complicit in these crimes.

Rios Montt to go to trial for genocide and crimes against humanity

2012-01-26T22:48:00.002-05:00

OnThursday, Efrain Rios Montt appeared in a Guatemalan court on genocide charges.During the hearing, the government presented evidence of over 100 incidentsinvolving at least 1,771 deaths, 1,445 rapes, and the displacement of nearly30,000 Guatemalans during his 17-month rule from 1982-1983 (WashingtonPost, BBC, SigloXXI, LA Times)

Rios Montt did not speak duringtoday's hearings, but it looks like he will be able to test his "I wasnever on the battlefield" defense. Tonight, judge CarolPatricia Flores determined that there is enough evidence to try RiosMontt on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity. The prosecutionwanted him incarcerated because of his potential for flight but the judge ruledthat he can remain out on bail. He has now been placed under house arrest andwill be watched by the PNC.

A tremendous victory for the peopleof Guatemala and a continuation of what I believe has been a pretty remarkable year-plus of human rights advancement in theregion.

Honduras: Central America’s free-fire zone

2012-01-25T09:14:00.000-05:00

The Miami Herald ha hasa new editorial, Central America's free-fire zone, calling forstronger action against Honduras in light of escalating violence andcorruption.

The recent withdrawal of America’s Peace Corps volunteersfrom Honduras is one more sign that the security situation in that CentralAmerican country has deteriorated to crisis levels not seen since the civilwars of the 1980s. The country is quickly turning into a disaster zone.

After the tide of civil war receded, the armies went back totheir barracks and the insurgents laid down their arms. But then narcoticstraffickers flooded in, and the violence has spiked dramatically ever since.The DEA estimates that 25 tons of cocaine move through the country every monthheading north.

In my opinion, theeditorial is poorly framed. First, why all this talk about civil wars, armiesreturning to their barracks, and insurgents laying down their arms when, in thecase of Honduras, it didn't experience a civil war, the army returned to itsbarracks but never relinquished power, and few insurgents ever posed a threatto the survival of the regime.

Why not talk about the US-encouragedmilitarization of the country during the 1970s and 1980s. How about the contrasoperating on Honduran soil and launching illegal attacks across the border andinto Nicaragua? You could also write about US support and training for Hondurantroops involved in helping to massacre Salvadorans along its border during the1980s.

They could also avoidthe 1980s Cold War rhetoric altogether since the war's been over for twentyyears. If there's been a "a 250-percent increase in half a dozen years," why notlook to the source of violence six years ago rather than twenty-five years ago?They could write about some of the mano dura policies firstintroduced in 2002 or the breakdown of the rule of law prior to, during, andafter the 2009 coup?

It'salso a terrible title because, while violent, I'm not exactly sure that anyonewould describe the situation as a "free-fire zone" and if it's aneditorial about the situation in Honduras, why not put "Honduras" inthe title rather than "Central America."

For a south Floridanewspaper with an international audience, they should be able to write aboutHonduras' particular history rather than general regional patterns.

This time, however, thereappears to be no effective U.S. strategy to combat the wave of crime and thegradual destruction of the country. To make matters worse in Honduras, thereare indications that elements of theU.S.-backed government are complicit in the violence andcriminality.

Way to beat around thebush. How about the Honduran government receives millions of dollars each yearfrom the United States at the same time that members of the executive,legislative and judicial branches are responsible for much of the country'sviolence and criminality? The evidence that the Miami Herald lists after thesetwo statements is much stronger but they already undermined its effect withindications, elements, and complicit framing.

Nudging Honduran leaders to do the right thing hasn’tworked. Time for Washington to get serious and put U.S. aid on the line,starting with an accounting of where U.S. dollars have ended up. The U.S.government helped fund a program to train Honduran prison guards, but has sincelost track of where those guards wound up.

Historically, the United States has been the biggestbilateral donor of aid to Honduras, but where’s the accountability?

Congress should withdraw assistance if the Hondurangovernment blocks reforms. This crisis requires more than tough talk.

Finally, I support aneffort to hold Honduran leaders accountable for the security situation andcorruption. However, the editorial also should have called on the US congressand the executive branch to review their own actions. How have they contributedto the situation in Honduras? How are they going to change the way that theyoperate?

Does anyone in the US government have a clue?

(h/t to Boz fora link to the article)

Civil Society and the Peace Accords in El Salvador

2012-01-24T13:19:00.001-05:00

I would like towelcome Alberto Martin Alvarez for a guest post onpolitical change and civil society in El Salvador. Alberto is a professor inthe Centro Universitario de Investigaciones Sociales atthe Universidad deColima in Colima, Mexico.

El Salvador a veinteaños de los Acuerdos de Paz:

Cambio político ysociedad civil

Las elecciones de marzode 2009 representaron un cambio político histórico en El Salvador. Al abrir lavía a la alternancia en el control del ejecutivo, se puede afirmar que dichoscomicios cerraron el ciclo abierto por la firma de los Acuerdos de Chapultepecde enero de 1992.

Desde 1989 y hasta hacedos años, el gobierno salvadoreño, - pero también otras estructuras del Estadocomo el poder legislativo y el judicial-, estuvieron dominados por la AlianzaRepublicana Nacionalista (ARENA). Surgido inicialmente como expresión políticade diversos sectores de la derecha salvadoreña (grandes productores agrícolas yagroindustriales, financieros y militares), este partido puso en marcha unaagenda de reformas económicas y del Estado a lo largo de las dos décadas en lasque se mantuvo al frente del ejecutivo. Desde un planteamiento económicoortodoxamente neoliberal, ARENA implementó un extenso programa deprivatizaciones. Desde 1989 se produjo la re – privatización de la banca, delcomercio exterior de café y azúcar, de la Administración de Comunicaciones(ANTEL), de la distribución de energía eléctrica, del sistema de pensiones, delos ingenios azucareros, entre otros. En la década de dos mil, el gobierno deFrancisco Flores realizó el intento de privatización de la Seguridad Social (ISSS)y el de Tony Saca firmó la adhesión de El Salvador al Tratado de Libre Comerciode América Central (CAFTA). Con ello, los gobiernos de ARENA completaron elrediseño de una economía que hoy cifra sus posibilidades de crecimiento en laapertura comercial y en el desarrollo de las exportaciones, pero que a la vezgenera una fortísima concentración de la riqueza (El Salvador continua siendouna de las sociedades con mayores desigualdades en la distribución de renta delhemisferio) que ha renunciado a la soberanía alimentaria, y ha condenado acientos de miles de salvadoreños a emigrar.

Si bien en los primerosaños la sociedad civil no fue capaz de ofrecer una respuesta firme a estaspolíticas, - y la oposición del FMLN no fue efectiva al no poder ejercer uncontrapeso efectivo desde el poder legislativo-, desde inicios de la década dedos mil una serie heterogénea de actores sociales se organizó en contra deellas. Las movilizaciones contra la privatización del ISSS y en oposición alCAFTA fueron las más masivas de entre las registradas desde finales de los añossetenta. Sin embargo, y frente al protagonismo quetuvieron sindicatos, campesinos y estudiantes en aquel periodohistórico, las protestas de la década del dos mil han supuesto el surgimientode nuevos actores como el movimiento de mujeres, el ecologismo, las ONG o lostrabajadores informales. También, y a diferencia de los setenta yochenta, los movimientos populares mantienen una mayor independencia respectode la izquierda política. Si en el pasado el FMLN hegemonizó – y con no pocafrecuencia instrumentalizó- al movimiento social, las dos últimas décadas hanmostrado a una sociedad civil mucho más independiente del Frente, con el quemantiene una relación de apoyo crítico.

La llegada del FMLN algobierno creó fuertes expectativas de mejora de la situación de la clasetrabajadora, de satisfacción de las demandas de justicia respecto de lasviolaciones a los derechos humanos durante la guerra, de oposición a losproyectos industriales o mineros de alto impacto ambiental, entre otros muchosreclamos populares y de la sociedad civil, no satisfechos durante los últimosveinte años. El lento ritmo de los cambios – o su inexistencia – en estosprimeros dos años y medio de gestión del presidente Funes, haprovocado protestas de diversos sectores: transportistas, empleados públicos(Hacienda, ANDA, INDES, poder judicial), lisiados de guerra, vendedorescallejeros, entre otros.

Lossectores más críticos del movimiento social acusan a Funes de persistir en laspolíticas económicas neoliberales implantadas por ARENA, lo que en ciertosentido es verdad pues no ha habido hasta el momento una alteración sustancialde las mismas, ni se han conseguido mejoras en otros aspectos críticos(seguridad). En este contexto, da la impresión de que algunos sectores de lasociedad civil organizada empiezan a ser partidarios de tornar su apoyo críticoal gobierno en oposición abierta. En estas circunstancias es importanteinterrogarse en qué medida puede este descontento erosionar el voto del FMLN decara a los próximos comicios. El partido ha tratado desde el principio depresentarse como un aliado del gobierno, y no como el partido que ostenta elpoder. Pero, ¿hasta qué punto el electorado será capaz de distinguir entre las políticasdel presidente y la estrategia de largo plazo del FMLN? ¿Otorgarán su confianzade nuevo los votantes al Frente esta vez con un candidato revolucionario de“pura sangre”, o el desgaste del presidente Funes afectará en la misma medidaal partido que lo apoya?

What do you think about Reagan now?

2012-01-23T08:23:00.002-05:00

From the New York Times

A Guatemalan judge has ordered a former military dictator,Efraín Ríos Montt, to appear in court on Thursday, the first step in a processthat could lead to his being tried on genocide charges and to a reopening ofthe darkest chapter in Guatemala’s brutal36-year civil war.

During General Ríos Montt’s 17-month rule in 1982 and 1983,the Guatemalan Army pursued a scorched-earth campaign in the Mayan highlandsthat included massacres that are regarded as among the most horrific in thewar. To flush out small bands of leftist guerrillas, soldiers entered Indianvillages and hunted down their inhabitants, slaughtering men, women andchildren indiscriminately.

How aboutduring the next Republican debate, the moderators ask what the candidates thinkabout Ronald Reagan's legacy given his relationship with Rios Montt, a man whoReagan claimed was "totally dedicated to democracy," "was a man of great personal integrity," and had been"getting a bum rap" by all those people criticizing him for humanrights abuses. Reagan said these things in December 1982 during the height ofthe genocide in Guatemala. While many people knew what was going on at thetime, the evidence today is incontrovertible.

Whilethey are at it, can they ask if they, like Reagan, will allow Central Americanelites to finance death squads against the Salvadoran people while they areliving the high-life in South Florida and perhaps even investing in Bain Capital?

For anyone who follows Latin America, this is nothing new. However, most Americans don't know much about Central American history or the US' role in the region during the 1970s and 1980s. It would be interesting to see if Mexican Mitt or The Historian know anything about the time period in question.

Murder and Police Corruption in Honduras

2012-01-22T12:28:00.000-05:00

It's good to see themedia begin to pick up on the fact that national police and governmentofficials in Central American are involved in all sorts of crime. It's not justdrug traffickers from Mexico and Colombia or gangs. (See the Miami Herald and McClatchy). Boz also has a write-up on Police Corruption in Honduras this morning.

A few things jumped outat me. I don't follow Honduran politics as closely as others, but how can youappoint a Security Minister to "lead a sweep of law enforcement" whohad no idea that criminals were operating out of police stations? Maybe not tothe extent that it was occurring, but not that it wasn't happening.

“It never occurred to me whenI took over this ministry that inside police stations there were peoplecommitting crimes and acting against human life,” said Security MinisterPompeyo Bonilla, named recently to lead a sweep of law enforcement. “We have aserious problem.”

While the Miami Heraldarticle wasn't bad, I can't help but notice that the 2009 coup against Zelayawasn't mentioned at all. Perhaps the the violence would have escalated inHonduras had the June 2009 coup not occurred. Obviously, we'll never know. Butit sure seems to me that violence committed by authorities has increased sincethat date. There's also the concern that drug traffickers stepped in to takeadvantage of the chaos that ensued following the coup. It should have beenmentioned even in passing.

Tim Johnson also has agood article for McClatchy on Crime booms as Central Americans fear police switched sides.I definitely don't like the title. Maybe they could have changed it to crimebooms as Central American police remains on both sides of the law.Maybe it's worse today but problem is nothing new.

Murder rates remain stubbornlyhigh across the region. El Salvador tallied 4,354 murders last year, slightlyunder Guatemala's 5,618 and the 6,723 that Honduras registered. The NorthernTriangle now approaches far more populous Mexico in the total number ofhomicides.

Now, notto be picky but these are not rates. It's also not good to present thesenumbers without taking into consideration population differences. El Salvadorhas a population of approximately 6 million, Guatemala somewhere in the 14million range, and Honduras about 8 million.

Finally, changes in murder ratesfor each country do not look alike. While crime booms, the murder rate in ElSalvador has gone up some years and down other years. In Honduras, it has gonestraight up. And in Guatemala, it has remained pretty flat for the last fewyears. Unlike Honduras and El Salvador, it has declined two years in a row. Guatemala'smurder rate has also been significantly lower than those for the two countriesfor just about every year under consideration.

A comparison of the three countriesshould take these differences into account.

The Miami Herald (Therisks and rewards of helping Honduras) and HermanoJuancito also have stories worth checking out. Their focus is on doinggood work in the midst of such violence.

Unity and Disunity in the Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN)

2012-01-19T08:57:00.001-05:00

It's two months before the 2012 legislative andmunicipal elections in El Salvador and campaigning has begun. We'll startlooking towards that election over the next few weeks. Unlike Guatemala,congressional elections in El Salvador are pretty important as the legislativeblocs tend to remain unified throughout the legislative period and the deputiestend to vote together. Not always, but more so than in Guatemala where, as ofTuesday, over thirty members of congress (nearly (20%) have already switched parties.

To get us started on El Savador, here's a paper thatAlberto Martin Alvarez (Universidad de Colima) and I have forthcoming in Latin American Politics and Societyon Unity and Disunity in the Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional(FMLN):

Problems of unity can affect an armed oppositiongroup at many stages of its existence - during the war, peace negotiations, andits transition to political party. In this paper, we assess to what extentinternal divisions affected the performance of the Farabundo Martí NationalLiberation Front (FMLN) in El Salvador.

We find that while the FMLN suffered significantinternal divisions in the early years of the war, the group remained remarkablyunified from 1983 onwards. Significant divisions among the groups began to showthemselves during the later years of the war, but they did not becomeexacerbated until after the war’s conclusion when the FMLN suffered fromrepeated fracturing. The FMLN only began to present itself as aprogrammatically coherent party in 2005 and this ideological homogeneityallowed it to conclude a series of partnerships with moderate,non-revolutionary sectors of Salvadoran society and achieve victory in the 2009presidential elections.

The paper won't be out until later this year so there might be a few formatting edits before then. However, the paper really shouldn't change much.

Guatemala Murder Rates by Department

2012-01-18T12:55:00.000-05:00

Here are the approximate murder rates per 100,000 people for each department in Guatemala in 2010 and 2011.

Guatemala – Change in murder rates 2010-2011

2012-01-17T10:47:00.000-05:00

Here's a map that lays out the change in each department's murder rate from 2010 to 2011 in Guatemala. Green is where the murder rate has improved. Red is where the murder rate has worsened. And yellow is where there has been little to no change (El Progreso at 0%, Izabal worsened 0.78%, and Chiquimula improved 1.42%).

20th Anniversary of the Peace Accords in El Salvador

2012-01-16T08:10:00.000-05:00

I'd like to introduce you all to ChristineJ. Wade. Christine is an Associate Professor ofPolitical Science and International Studies at Washington College as wellas a good friend. Among other publications, Christine is a co-author of UnderstandingCentral America: Global Forces, Rebellion and Change (Westview Press, 2009) and Nicaragua:Living in the Shadow of the Eagle (Westview Press, 2011).

Here's her post on ElSalvador: Not what it was, but not what it might have been.

Twenty years ago today,the Salvadoran government and the FMLN signed the peace accords that ended thenearly 12-year civil war. While in retrospect it is easy to criticize thevarious shortcomings of the accords, it is also important to note thesignificant changes that took place because of them: the restructuring of themilitary, the creation of the new police force (PNC), the creation of the newelectoral tribunal (TSE), judicial reforms, land transfers, and thelegalization of the FMLN as a political party. However imperfect in theirimplementation, these reforms dramatically reshaped Salvadoran politics andsociety. It is also important to note that the ceasefire has never been broken-a rather spectacular feat given the number of peace accords that fail withintheir first five years. As late as 1991, many academics and policymakersdoubted that a negotiated resolution to the conflict could be reached. That thepeace has held this long is a testament to both parties.

Unfortunately, thequality of El Salvador’s peace has been compromised throughout the past twodecades. There were serious problems with the implementation of key elements ofthe accords— too many to discuss in detail here. The Cristiani administration’srefusal to acknowledge, much less implement, the findings of the Truth andReconciliation Commission thoroughly undermined societal reconciliation. Onlyunder the Funes administration has there been any meaningful acknowledgment ofthe grievous crimes committed by the state during the war. Impunity is rampant.The accords did nothing to alleviate the economic injustices that have longplagued the country. Over the past two decades, more Salvadorans have fled thecountry in search of work and better opportunities than did during the war.Finally, post-accord El Salvador has been plagued by a seemingly unending crimewave that threatens not only Salvadoran citizens, but the very spirit of theaccords. The violence is so consuming that some Salvadorans refer to the past20 years as “not war,” finding it impossible to reconcile such violence with“peace.” Limitations on political participation, such as the anti-terror law,and the joint patrols between the police and army undermine some of the mostbasic principles of the accords.

So how are we toevaluate the last 20 years of peace in El Salvador? There is no doubt that ElSalvador is a country transformed in many ways. One need only look at theexecutive office to see that. There is also no doubt that the quality of peacehas disappointed many, myself included. In sum, it’s not what it was, but notwhat it might have been.

As much as thisanniversary offers us an opportunity to reflect on the past two decades, italso offers an opportunity to look forward- forward to the possibilities ofpeace in a new era. There is much work to be done— none of it easy.Transforming “not war” into “peace” will require resolve, creativity, acumen,and political agility. Getting to peace also requires a re-commitment to thespirit and letter of the framework established at Chapultepec 20 years ago.What better day than today to begin again?

Tim's Top El Salvador stories of 2011

2012-01-15T19:45:00.000-05:00

Go check out Tim's Top El Salvador stories of 2011.

And then check out Contrapunto for a letter to President Funes asking him to do more than apologize for crimes committed by the state during the Salvadoran civil war.

AFP is getting a little better reporting on Guatemala

2012-01-15T12:49:00.000-05:00

Here's part of today's story on Perez's inauguration fromthe AFP.

The CentralAmerican country has on average 18 murders a day, six times the world average,and has seen large swaths of its territory penetrated by drug cartels usingGuatemala as a transit point on their smuggling routes out of South America.

18 murders per day works out to be 6,570 murders. That's alittle higher than the 6,498 that the PNC reported for 2009 (thehighest on record) and much higher than what it reported for 2010 (5,960) and2011 (5,681). That was a little disheartening. If one uses 2010's murders, itis 16.3 per day and if you use 2011's murders, it is 15.6. Not great, but 18 to16.3 to 15.6 tells a little different story.

But then a few paragraphs later, they write that Perez

has vowed to showresults in his first six months in office, and to cut in half the murder rate —currently one of the world’s highest at 38 per 100,000 inhabitants — by the endof his term.

38 per 100,000 looks like 2011's murder rate based upon5,681 murders and a population of 14.7 million.

I guess we should be happy that at least one of thestatistics that they cite is current. However, it's still disappointing thatthey can't realize that the two numbers that they use (per and and per 100,000)are inconsistent.

Now if they would only ask the general why reducing thecountry's murder rate from 43 per 100,000 (the year before Colom took power) to38.6 per 100,000 (Colom's last year in office) is evidence of an increasing andout of control crime situation, why is he promising to cut the murder rate inhalf? By his and the Guatemalan media's standards, that would just mean thecountry is even worse off than when he took office, right?

Inauguration Day in Guatemala

2012-01-14T13:17:00.001-05:00

It's inauguration day inGuatemala. I wasn't impressed with the two main presidential candidates and Ican't say that I'm excited to have Otto Perez Molina in charge for the nextfour years given what he is alleged to have done and what he intends to do. (NPR, Bloomberg, Christian Science Monitor, Reuters, The Foundry)

On Friday morning, aGuatemalan congressman was shot and killed blocks fromthe country's congress.

OscarValentin Leal Caal was elected to congress as a member of LIDER. However, justdays ago, he agreed to switch his party affiliation to Perez' Patriotic Parry(PP). Even though President Alvaro Colom "said there was no immediate evidence the crime was linked tocongressional affairs or Perez's inauguration" his murder has led to somespeculation that he was killed because of political motivations as his partyswitch wasn't official at the time of his death.

On the other hand,according to reports, he has been getting threats since his Septemberreelection so it's hard to see how his switch played a role unless we know more about what has been going on behind the scenes.

The otherscenario is that he was killed for some reason related to events in AltaVerapaz, the department which he represents in congress. It's also thedepartment where the government launched a state of siege in December 2010.

Roxanna Baldetti spoke to the press this morning. She says they have recovered the murder weapon, a police revolver. They also have a protected witness. Let's justsay that Leal's death was probably not a suicide. That one's been tried before.

In other news, afterPresident Colom says good-bye, he will try to rekindle that loving feeling with former wife SandraTorres. She apparently isn't going anywhere. She wants more security and the political persecution to stop. She's alsoone of the favorites in 2015 in case you are looking ahead.

Republicans derail US ambassador to El Salvador

2012-01-14T09:44:00.000-05:00

Two week delay in posting, but here's my take on Republican efforts to derail Mari Carmen Aponte's nomination as US Ambassador to El Salvador. It's up at Al Jazeera now.

The United States Senate recently blocked President Barack Obama's nominee for ambassador to El Salvador. Mari Carmen Aponte had been serving as ambassador to El Salvador since September 2010 and, by most measures, seems to have done a fine job representing US interests in the country.

However, given that Aponte was a 2010 recess appointment which allowed Obama to sidestep Senate concerns, the Senate would have needed to confirm her nomination in order for her to continue to serve as ambassador beyond the end of this year. Instead, 49 Senators, including one Democrat, voted to block Aponte's nomination.

Several opinion pieces have taken to explaining that Aponte's nomination was derailed by an op-ed published in El Salvador where she defended the rights of gays and lesbians. However, I would argue that her nomination would have failed even if she had not written the op-ed.

Friday Morning in Central America

2012-01-13T08:22:00.002-05:00

Here are a few links to get you through the morning.

In Guatemala, a judge told former first lady SandraTorres not to leave the country while she is under investigation forpossible misuse of government funds when she managed President Colom's socialprograms. While she hasn't been charged, a complaint was filed against her last year. I don't think that anyone would be surprised if the former first lady and her husband used the social programs to benefit support for his administration and her electoral campaign. It's deplorable, but not surprising. Is there anything else to the charges?

In El Salvador, the government has confirmed that it hasreceived a formal extradition requestfrom Spain for 13 former military officers linked to the killing of sixJesuits, their housekeeper and her daughter in 1989. Two of the 15 wanted bythe Spanish court are currently in the United States. Foreign Minister HugoMartinez said that the request has been forwarded to the high court forconsideration.

The Institute of Legal Medicine says that it never reportedthat only 10% of murders were gang-related.

"We have never said that is 10 percent (the percentageof homicides committed by gangs), what happens is that police investigations donot (...) 70 of 100 around where the murder was committed, did not report whowas the perpetrator, only 30 reported who was the perpetrator. Of these30, hence the confusion likely, 10 said they had been gang, "said Magana,who said to be responsible for half of national newspapers.

So, in general, police are only able to identify murderer in 30% of the cases in which they investigate. And one-third of those that they do "solve" is gang-related.

The Tripartite Commission comprised of the ILM, PNC,and FGR has not met yet. They will come up with an official murder tollsometime later this month or February. Then we'll know for sure whether themurder rate has gone up and by how much.

In the same article, Contrapunto also provides additionalstatistics from last year's murders.

Sonsonate was the department's most violent country in 2011with a homicide rate of 110.4 per 100,000 population, followed by San Salvadorand La Libertad with a murder rate of 83.8 and 70.6 murders per 100,000inhabitants, respectively.

With regard to gender, 14.8 percent of those killed in 2011were female and 85.2 percent men.

The Vatican Insider has a detailed report on Thepeace mosaic that caused a “war.” It's about the destruction of themural on the face of the cathedral in San Salvador.

Does the Surge in Disappearances Reflect Gang Violence in El Salvador?

2012-01-12T10:42:00.000-05:00

As I mentioned over the weekend, over 2,000 Salvadorans disappeared in 2011. I wanted to follow up on a few things that Hannah Stone at InSight Crime said about these numbers.

First, she says that

If the vast majority of those missing are now dead, as El Diario de Hoy reports, then this would increase the country's murder rate, which stood at 65 per 100,000 in 2011, by one-third. This would bring it into line with neighboring Honduras, which has a rate of over 80 per 100,000 -- the highest in the world.

Unfortunately, that's not quite accurate. If we take El Salvador's population for 2011 at 6,162,000 and its murders at 4,354, the country has a murder rate of 71 per 100,000. However, if we add another 2,007 to the murder country's murder total for 2011, its murder rate jumps to 103 per 100,000. I think that would put it in a league of its own. That is unless Honduras has its own problem with disappearances which would bring its murder rate up as well.

Second, I'm not entirely convinced that the increased number of disappearances is "sign of growing gang violence." They might be. I just want to see some evidence. According to an official at the IML, "maras," were likely involved in three-quarters of the cases.

However, the Institute of Legal Medicine (IML), in collaboration with the Attorney General's Office (FGR) and the National Civilian Police (PCN), argue that 11% of violent deaths the country were committed by gangs. The PNC, when it presents its own figures, claims that gangs are involved in nearly 30% of murders. The PNC does say that that number will eventually go up with more evidence. Finally, the Public Security and Justice Ministry believes that 90% of the murders in 2011 were gang-related.

So there we have a range of 11% to 90% of the country's murders are gang-related. Maybe it's 75% as Stone reports, but I just don't really know. And I'm not sure that anyone does.

Then there's the question of what it means that the murders are gang-related. That's helpful to an extent but I'd like to know more.

How many were caused by turf battles between gangs (drug routes)?

How many were caused by gangs taking care of their own (internal power struggles)?

How many were caused by initiations where new recruits must kill?

How many were just for fun?

How many were caused when extortion, kidnapping, and robberies went bad?

How many were politically motivated murders?

How many were caused by death squads engaged in social cleansing?

This isn't an exhaustive list by any means. I'd also like to know how each percentage compared to 2010, 2009... Maybe even how El Salvador's situation compares to its neighbors.

It's just some encouragement to ask what "gang-related" actually means.

Here's an editorial in La Prensa Grafica calling for better statistics as well. I am definitely more impressed with the questions that are being asked in El Salvador compared to the lack of questioning of official statistics in Guatemala.

Authorities need to ask the right questions so that they can try come up with the right solutions. They also need a way to measure whether their policies have been effective. Citizens need to have confidence in the statistics that officials provide so that they can hold them accountable come election time.

The raw numbers don't tell us the entire story or violence and crime in Central America. But they are helpful in both diagnosing the problem and measuring the effectiveness of the proposed solutions.

A difficult task I do say

2012-01-12T09:00:00.000-05:00

From an AP story on President-elect Otto Perez Molina

Former general Otto Perez Molina takes office as Guatemala’s new president Saturday with a top priority of ending a long-standing U.S. ban on military aid imposed over concerns about abuses during the Central American country’s 36-year civil war.

Perez, who was a top military official during the war, has long insisted there were no massacres, human rights violations or genocide in a conflict that killed 200,000 civilians, mostly Mayan Indians...

Close advisers say he supports meeting the conditions set by various U.S. congressional appropriations acts for restoring aid that was first eliminated in 1978 halfway through the civil war.

Among the required steps is reforming a weak justice system that has failed to bring those responsible for abuses to justice. A U.N.-sponsored postwar truth commission said state forces and related paramilitary groups committed most of the killings.

The U.S. also insists that the government support a United Nations-supported international anti-corruption team whose prosecution effort has been criticized by Guatemala’s political elite.

I find it hard to believe that Perez is going to put a lot of effort into reforming a judicial system so that it can bring human rights violators to justice for atrocities committed during the civil war when the president himself believes that no such violations took place and his incoming administration is filled with former military officials.

Many of his other officials are tied to the country's economic elite who have been waging war on CICIG and the attorney general. I hope that I am wrong, but I don't have a lot of confidence here either.

He won handily this time with campaign promises to deal with criminals with an “iron fist,” a stand that resonated in a country of more than 13 million people where murders are committed at a rate of 45 for every 100,000 residents. That is almost three times higher than in neighboring Mexico.

45 per 100,000 is closer to 2008 or 2009 not today. Last year the murder rate was about 38.5 and in 2010 it was 41 per 100,000. While Guatemala's murder rate might be three times as high as Mexico's, it is about half its southern neighbors, Honduras and El Salvador, with which it is more frequently grouped.

Inocente Orlando Montano update

2012-01-11T19:14:00.000-05:00

On Wednesday, Inocente Orlando Montano backed out of a guilty plea on immigration charges. Montano is alleged to have played a role in the 1989 murder of the UCA Jesuits.

A spokeswoman for federal prosecutors says Montano informed the court Wednesday that he will not plead guilty.

Montano is charged with lying under oath and making false statements on immigration forms to remain in the U.S. He was arrested in August in the Boston area, where he has been living for about a decade.

He probably realized that a guilty verdict would have sent him back to El Salvador or put him on the fast track for an extradition request to Spain.

Courageous Stand by The Guatemala Times

2012-01-11T08:33:00.000-05:00

The Guatemala Times released Our take on the Colom Presidency yesterday. There’s a lot of good stuff. President Colom has gotten bad press his entire term in office. Some of it is obviously deserved. However, much of it seems to be politically motivated and it's only gotten worse over the last few weeks. I use the term courageous to describe The Guatemala Times' position because what they say is dangerous and I am sure that they know it.

Guatemala’s mainstream media is owned by the status quo and defends the status quo. President Colom was always seen as a threat to the powers of Guatemala – a socialist, in the minds of the Guatemalan right - wingers that is considered the same as communist, guerilla, terrorist, anti- establishment, a menace to their power structure. He is not one of “them”, he must be the enemy.

Anyone who has the illusion that in Guatemala the President elect is the real power is a fool. The power behind the power is and always has been the Guatemalan elite, much the same as in the US, where President Obama has not been able to do anything of what he promised, because it is not convenient for the big money. It is a “moneycracy” not a democracy. Money rules, not the people.

Now the Guatemalan media smells blood and they must endear themselves to the newly elected government of Otto Perez. They are getting bolder and bolder, more offensive and disrespectful as the Presidency of Colom is coming to its end.

There seems to be several factors at play in the media’s coverage of Colom. One line seeks to connect him to the guerrillas and tends to argue that this is what happens when you elect a leftist of someone closely aligned with the guerrillas to the presidency. I get the impression that they don’t just want to take down Colom, but they want to undermine social democracy and the political left in Guatemala. This can be seen by both the media’s coverage of Colom as well as the legal actions brought against former guerrillas and peace activists for crimes committed during the civil war. While the guerrillas did some nasty things, what they did pales in comparison to what the Guatemalan armed forces and government did.

Yesterday’s story about a lawsuit brought against Colom for failing to extend CICIG’s mandate looks like it might be designed to discredit him as well. In 2010, it was thought that the Congress did not need to vote to extend CICIG’s mandate. Putting my conspiracy hat on, it is possible that the media, the elite, and members of the incoming administration do not want CICIG’s mandate extended and this is a way for them to get out of the country’s relationship with CICIG while blaming Colom. I’m not sure of this one, but stranger things have happened. We already know that the lawsuits against Claudia Paz y Paz was politically motivated and likely designed to get her to stop civil war investigations. It’s not that far-fetched to believe that this lawsuit is politically motivated as well.

Finally, the media’s brutal coverage of Colom’s last few weeks already has the effect of causing the people to look towards Otto Perez Molina as the country’s savior. I haven’t read one piece that questions statistics on the country’s murder rate. What explains why two years of reduced murders have led to a rising sense of insecurity amongst Guatemalans? Are the authorities not counting correctly? If murders are not the best way to measure criminal violence, how can we produce statistics that better reflect the situation in which Guatemala finds itself? Has there been any of that? No. They just report the decline and then repeat how Colom has done nothing to improve the security situation in the country.

You should definitely read the whole piece.

Guatemala fails to extend CICIG mandate

2012-01-10T13:14:00.000-05:00

A Guatemalan attorney has filed a criminal complaint against President Alvaro Colom for failing to extend the mandate of the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG). Colom didn't send the bill to congress and no one seems to have realized it until recently.

According to Gallindo's complain, President Colom didn't send the bill to congress because he doesn't want the CICIG to investigate his administration for corruption. His actions, or lack thereof, constitute a violation of the Constitution, abuse of authority and dereliction of duty. (Siglo XXI, Emisoras Unidas)

I'm sure that there's more to come, but as I said earlier, if the Colom administration was as corrupt as previous administrations with the international community looking over its shoulders, CICIG should not have its mandate extended.

Defending Human Rights in Latin America

2012-01-10T08:54:00.000-05:00

I have a new post up on Defending Human Rights in Latin America at Al Jazeera.It's been about two weeks since I wrote it so it sounds a bit dated already.

Time Magazine recently named The Protester as its person of the year 2011. If I were to confine the choice to Latin America, I would have to support the human rights defender. While there have been previous successes, 2011 seems to have been a watershed in which nearly every country has made some progress in bringing those responsible for some of the worst human rights abuses to justice.

What do you think? On balance, was it a pretty good year for holding human rights violators accountable?

A Different Take on Murders in Central America

2012-01-08T15:38:00.030-05:00

Here's what Prensa Libre picked up from AGENCIA ACAN-EFE.

Violence has surged in Guatemala during the last ten years, officials said, because of the presence of youth gangs and drug gangs that have been installed in the country. Last year, according to official figures, 5,681 murders were reported in the country, an average of 16 per day, equivalent to a rate of 38.61 homicides per 100 000 inhabitants. These figures place this Central American country as one of the most dangerous and violent in Latin America.

Would it be so hard to say that 2011's murder rate was the country's lowest since 2004?

Or how about Guatemala's murder rate of 38.61 is very high, yet it is no where near as high as those of Venezuela (67), El Salvador (70), or Honduras (86)?

Or how about Guatemala's murder rate has never told the complete story about how dangerous a country Guatemala has been? Here's a ranking of the most violent country years since 2000. These are based upon homicide rates for El Salvador, Honduras, and El Salvador per 100,000 people.

I only intended to compile a list of the top ten. However, I had to go to fifteen so as to include Guatemala somewhere on the list. Guatemala's 2011 rate would rank 25th out of 36 country-years.

While we are at it, is citing murder statistics useless when we describe Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala? The Northern Triangle is frequently described as one of the most dangerous regions on the planet yet Honduras and El Salvador have nearly double Guatemala's murder rate.

Then there's the title of post - "At least 19 people have been killed in the last 24 hours." Obviously, when you average 16 murders per day, it's not that unusual that you will have days where the total number of murders will reach 19. That's how averages work - some days below and some days above. The Latin American Herald Tribune picked the story up as well.

My hope that the coverage of violence Central America would improve this year isn't looking so good.

Here are some other posts since Friday in case you were busy with football or the NH debate.

Salvadorans Continue to Disappear - but what about Guatemalans?

Guatemala doesn't count?

Some links that I never got around to

Guatemala murder rates (1995-2011)

Salvadorans Continue to Disappear - but what about Guatemalans?

2012-01-08T12:47:00.001-05:00

In addition to the 4,354 people murdered in El Salvador in 2011, the Institute of Legal Medicine reports that they are aware of another 2,007 reported disappearances (1,598 men and 409 women). And that is just in the capital of San Salvador.

While we read about the disappeared in Mexico and El Salvador, I've seen no comparable stories in the Guatemalan press. Are disappearances contributing to the disconnect between a declining murder rate and the increased perception of insecurity in that country?

Guatemala doesn't count?

2012-01-07T14:56:00.000-05:00

From Jorge G Castaneda's opinion piece on Good times down Latin America's way up at Al Jazeera.

Three elections were held in Latin America in 2011. Two - in Argentina and Peru - went well; the other - in Nicaragua - was marred by egregious fraud and heavy-handed government intervention in favour of the incumbent. Still, two out of three is not bad in a region where, previously, if elections were held at all, disputes about the outcomes were the norm.

You can say that Guatemala's election wasn't as important, regionally speaking, as those in Nicaragua, Peru, and Argentina, but ya gotta include it. Maybe he's got something against Guatemala.

So, what's the reason why the United States is only sending its Peace Corps Director (to check out country conditions for himself?), US Ambassador to Guatemala, Senator Mary Landrieu, and the USAID Assistant Administrator for Latin America to Otto Perez Molina's inauguration?

Like Castaneda, does the US not place much of a priority on Guatemala? Or, are we sending low-level dignitaries (no offense) because we don't want to have the big guns standing with an alleged war criminal? Has anyone heard who, if anyone, is going to Nicaragua?

Some links that I never got around to

2012-01-06T13:02:00.000-05:00

Taylor Dibbert has a piece in Foreign Policy Journal on Amnesty and Guatemala's Civil War.

Annie Bird has a long article in Counterpunch on Marching Towards the Past in Guatemala.

The Independent has a profile on Francisco Dall'Anese.

Jose Miguel Cruz has an article in Latin American Politics & Society on Criminal Violence and Democratization in Central America: The Survival of the Violent State.

Finally, congratulations to Greg at Two Weeks Notice on his promotion to full professor.

Guatemala murder rates (1995-2011)

2012-01-06T09:03:00.000-05:00

Here's the Colom administration tooting its own horn. Maybe now people will ask why is the murder rate going down rather than up?

Is the decrease the result of effective government policies (e.g., better policing, less corruption, more police, etc.)?
Is the decrease the result of the state's withdrawal from certain conflict-prone areas of the country or the consolidation of power by local gangs and transnational criminal networks?
Have Guatemalans somehow changed the way they behave (don't go out at night, pay extortion) so as to avoid death?
Was the murder decline simply the result of a successful state of siege in Alta Verapaz rather than broad-based success?

I don't think anybody actually knows why the rate has gone down two years in a row. Partly that's because they've been asking why it has been going up. That's why I had a hard time taking many of their analyses seriously.

People would keep writing about a security situation spiraling out of control by presenting 2009's horrific murder statistics and/or they would neglect evidence that a decline in murders had been occurring over the last 24 months. Prensa Libre would support its Murders Continue headline with evidence that the murder rate in Coatepeque, Quetzaltenango had dropped 25%. There was also all the reporting that 2011 election cycle was the "most violent" in recent history with 43 dead in campaign-related killings. However, a US CRS Report to Congress reported 56 dead in 2007. Likewise, an EU report claimed over 50 dead in 2007. While 2011's election might have been more violent than those of the past, using statistics on the number of murders committed during the campaigns did not support that conclusion. Then there was El Periodico's October reporting of a sharp increase in the murder rate when its number showed the opposite.

Anyway, here's one possible explanation for the decline in murders that I haven't heard in a while. In Wikileaks cable from May 2008, Carlos Castresana told the US Embassy that he thought 25% of the murders in the country had been of the extrajudicial killing variety. Perhaps the government hasn't been as effective at reducing murders carried out by criminal elements. They've only been successful at reducing the number of murders committed by on-duty and off-duty security personnel. Maybe someone who is in the country can ask "people in the know."

Central American Homicide Rates per 100,000

2012-01-05T11:23:00.000-05:00

Murder rates aren't everything, but Honduras and El Salvador are really in a league of their own.

No, it's not clear that some of Guatemala's violence has moved to Honduras. It's possible, but the slight improvement in Guatemala's murder rate really can't explain the takeoff in Honduras' rate.

The murder rates for 2000-2010 come from LPG. For Guatemala, the 2011 rate comes from here (it looks like they've added sixty-three murders since my last post). For El Salvador, the rate is based on a population of 6.2 million. And here is the data on Honduras as reported by La Tribuna..

Making sense of El Salvador's Murder Statistics

2012-01-04T15:45:00.000-05:00

Making sense out of El Salvador's murder statistics shouldn't be this hard. The National Civil Police (PNC) released year-end murder numbers this week that has gotten everyone talking. The PNC reports that there were 4,354 murders in 2011. That's a sharp increase from 2010 when they reported 3,987 murders. It's also above the 4,223 murders that the PNC reported in 2009.

However, El Salvador also has a Tripartite Commission that tracks murders. The Commission is comprised of representatives from the Fiscalía, Policía y Instituto de Medicina Legal (ILM). While they have not produced the total number of murders for 2011, the commission's 2010 total was 4,004 (17 more than the PNC counted). That's not much of a difference obviously. However, the ILM recorded 4,367 murders in 2009 when the PNC only reported 4,223. That's a difference of 144 murders.

As of right now, then, 2011 holds the distinction of having the first or second most number of murders committed during the last ten years. We'll have to wait for the Tripartite Commission's findings from 2011 to be sure though.

Once we settle on the total number of murders, we need to move on to the country's population to figure out its murder rate per 100,000. Contrapunto uses the country's 2007 census as a starting point. That census pegged the population at 5.7 million. Contrapunto calculates the rate for 2011 (based upon a population of 5.7 million) at 76.3. The rate would be 70 for 2010 and 74 for 2009. However, I'm not sure that there is a lot of agreement that 5.7 million was accurate in 2007 and it sure isn't accurate in 2011.

In March of last year, La Prensa Grafica put together some data using ILM's murder statistics and what appears to be population data from CELADE. According to LPG's reporting, the murder rate in 2009 stood at 71 and it decreased in 2010 to 65. If we use CELADE's population projections for 2011 (6.222 million) and the PNC's murder totals (again, we don't have the Tripartite Commission's which might change things a bit), the rate comes out to 70 murders per 100,000.

InSight and El Faro put El Salvador's murder rate at 65 per 100,000. From my calculations, that would put El Salvador's population at 6.7 million. The other possibility, which I think is a bit more likely, is that they just reported the 2010 rate and didn't recalculate it for 2011.

Either way, it hasn't been a good year in El Salvador. The murder rate is either equal to or slightly above its previous high in 2009.

Ahmadinejad is coming to town?

2012-01-03T18:36:00.000-05:00

On Monday, Harold Caballeros confirmed that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would be attending Otto Perez Molina's January inauguration. However on Tuesday, Perez said that Ahmadinijad's attendance has not yet been confirmed.

In addition to an editorial calling his invitation the first error of the next administration, Prensa Libre also ran this cartoon.

The context is that the US has placed six conditions upon Guatemala before it resumes military aid to the country. (h/t Boz)

I would hate to see a resumption of US military aid to Guatemala based upon the fear that, if we don't, somehow the Iranians would benefit. And I am really afraid that I just came up with Roger Noriega's next op-ed.

Under-reported story of the year in Guatemala?

2012-01-03T09:01:00.000-05:00

Both the National Civilian Police (PNC) and the National Institute of Forensic Sciences (INACIF) have released year end numbers on homicides and violent deaths in Guatemala. The numbers are not surprising if you follow this blog. On the other hand, they are even better than I thought that they would be.

According to the PNC, there were 5,618 homicides in 2011, nearly 6% less (342) less than 2010. The numbers work out to be 15.51 per day and 35.74 per 100,000!

INACIF, on the other hand, provided statistics on violent deaths (murders, suicides, and other killings) through December 28th. According to INACIF, there were 6,187 violent deaths in 2011, a 7.4% decline from 2010 when they counted 6,673. 2011's numbers are nearly 1,000 fewer than the 7,036 reported in 2009, the most violent year in recent memory.

According to Siglo XXI, even though murders declined, 2011's murders were committed with greater fury and cruelty. It's not clear if INACIF said that or just Siglo XXI. It's possible, but they provide no evidence. And I am not sure how much of their impression is driven by 27 decapitations in the May Peten massacre.

I'm sure that I'll have more later, but it's now official. Murders have declined quite dramatically in Guatemala over the last two years. They are off nearly 14% from their 2009 highs.

Fifteen Year Anniversary of the Guatemalan Peace Accords

2011-12-29T08:46:00.000-05:00

Today marks the 15th anniversary of the peace accords that ended Guatemala's thirty-six year conflict. I'm going to be off for a few days, so take a look around the Guatemalans papers and let me know what you see.

Controversy 15 years after the accords

Where are the protagonists of peace? One is about to assume the highest office in the land.

Speaking of the general, he says that he is going to relaunch the substantive agreements from 1996. Here's an interview with Pablo Monsanto as well.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everyone!

Charges against Mejia Dropped

2011-12-28T09:21:00.000-05:00

From the AFP

Guatemala prosecutors have moved to drop genocide and war crimes charges against former dictator Oscar Mejia, who ruled from 1983-86, arguing that the 80-year-old is not fit to stand trial.

"Based on both forensic and psychiatric reports, and in accordance with applicable law, the criminal prosecution of Mr Mejia cannot continue, and so we have to suspend (it)," chief prosecutor Manuel Vasquez told reporters Tuesday.

In many ways, it's just a formality once Mejia was found unfit to stand trial. It's disappointing that, as of now, he won't stand trial. As I wrote last month, I was uncomfortable having eighty and ninety-year olds suffer their remaining years in prison,

However, at this point, I am more concerned that these men have their day in court. They should be tried for crimes related to their conduct during the war. Even if they never have to spend a day in prison, it will be something remarkable for a Guatemalan court to find them guilty of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.

They could spend the rest of their lives under house arrest, but history will not absolve them.

Now it looks like Mejia won't even have his day in court.

Murders in El Salvador increase by over 10%?

2011-12-27T10:00:00.000-05:00

On Monday, Salvadoran authorities released an update to the year's murder statistics.

El Salvador saw a post-civil war record number of murders in 2011, with at least 4,308 people killed in a crime epidemic in the country of 6.1 million, police said.

National police announced the figure late Monday, saying it topped the 2009 rate of 4,223 murders, making 2011 the deadliest year in recent memory for a small country still struggling to recover from a devastating civil war.

The latest number reflects a 9.3 percent increase in homicides from the previous year, according to national police director Carlos Ascencio.

We'll have to assume that the numbers reflect up to some date in December, but it's not clear in the article.

The increase in murders from 2010 to 2011 represents an increase of nearly 10%. They don't provide 2010's numbers. What they do provide are those for 2009 and when we compare 2011 to 2009, the increase is approximately 2% higher. Previously 2009 had been the most violent year on record.

However, once you take into consideration the population growth in El Salvador from 2009 to 2011, the murder rate will probably remain the same. (More people, more murders, rate per 100,000 remains the same).So you can look at it as things are getting worse or violence levels have returned to where they were two years ago.

Instituto de Medicina Legal Murder Figures for all but 2011

I don't have PNC murders over time. However, last year La Prensa Grafica provided murder statistics from the Instituto de Medicina Legal in El Salvador. As you can see, its numbers vary slightly from those reported by the PNC.

According to IML, 4,367 people were murdered in El Salvador in 2009. This number is 144 murders higher than that reported by the PNC. We'll have to wait to see whether the ILM also reports an increase in murders and, if so, by how much.

While the figure above does not take into consideration population differences, one can see similar upward trajectories in both El Salvador and Guatemala's total murders up to 2009. Both countries then made progress in reducing those numbers in 2010, but 2011 is a different story. Murders in Guatemala have continued to decrease while those in El Salvador look to surpass its 2009 highs.

How do I read these numbers? Guatemala has made significant progress in reducing the number of murders committed in both 2010 and 2011 (a largely unnoticed story). And in El Salvador, after experiencing some success in 2010, murders are back to where the Funes administration began, maybe even a little higher.

Coatepeque, Quetzaltenango

2011-12-26T08:23:00.000-05:00

Under the headline Murders Continue (or Killings Continue) from Prensa Libre,

The number of violent deaths remains high in Coatepeque, Quetzaltenango, although it has fallen in relation to the cases registered last year. This remains one of the most violent in the department, just below the department capital.

According to statistics from the Public Ministry (MP), until just last week there had been 62 homicides in this municipality, and in 2010 reported 83.

You can just almost feel the jubilation that comes with a 25% drop in Coatepeque's murder rate! I'm sure things aren't all that great but when an article that speaks of a ~25% decline in the murder rate has a headline of Murders Continue, you just really have to wonder what would make them recognize a significant drop in the murder rate.

Murder Numbers in Guatemala

2011-12-23T13:25:00.001-05:00

The 2011 figure includes actual murders up to Nov. and an estimate for Dec.

If you haven't read Nic Wertz's piece on Otto Perez Molina and the Guatemala Justice System, I would encourage you to do so. The justice system in Guatemala that has made progress in recent months is coming under attack from a variety of angles.

Anyway, we were going back and forth in the comments section and he said that Otto Perez had said during the campaign trail that Guatemala was suffering an average of approximately 25 murders a day. That would work out to be 9,125 murders per year, nearly 3,000 more than 2009 which is the worst year outside of the civil war.

Now, there seem to be a few explanations for the different between Perez's numbers and those of the PNC who have the country's murder totals approaching 5,600 for the year.

The PNC is wrong. They might be missing ten murders each day because they labelled them disappearances rather than murders. There might be mass graves like those found in Mexico in recent years. Either of those scenarios would explain the difference. I imagine that the PNC's numbers would then have been wrong each of the last few years which would effect total murders and rates, but probably not the overall trajectory of a decline in murders in 2010 and 2011. Unless it was just this year that they were off.

A second explanation is that the General is just playing loose with the numbers for political reasons. A former general who based his campaign on criticizing the outgoing administration for allowing the security situation to escalate out of control would not let facts stand in his way, would he?

He might have purposely cited the 25 figure to drum up fear among Guatemalans (as if they didn't have enough already). An accepted number of 25 murders per day and 9,000 or so a year would also make it much easier for him to attain his campaign promise of reducing the murder rate by 20%.

Now, if CICIG is using 17 murders each day that would correspond, roughly speaking, to the numbers form 2008. There were about 18 murders per day in 2009 and 16 in 2010. Now let's see what happens in December. If things stay the same this month as they have all year, Guatemala will check in with about 15.5 murders per ~~month~~ day. Not great, but getting better again.

Political and economic links from El Salvador

2011-12-23T09:14:00.000-05:00

While CID-Gallup has President Mauricio Funes as the most popular president in Central America, Salvadorans polled by IUDOP don't entirely see it that way (See Tim). Forty-two percent say that he is doing a good job. 25% say neither good nor bad.

While the FMLN leads voter preferences for the upcoming legislative and municipal elections according to IUDOP, local Salvadoran polls put out by the major means of communication have ARENA in the lead.

Representatives from the Mesa Nacional frente la Mineria Metalica held a protest in front of the Canadian Embassy in San Salvador to commemorate the two-year anniversary of the deaths of two Cabans environmental activists.

Edgardo Ayala has a report from El Salvador on Women Demand to Be Included in Climate Solutions.

Some 100 rural women in El Salvador demanded that the government halt mining and hydroelectric projects that are harming their communities and establish specific programmes with a gender perspective for combating climate change.

Mixed economic news out of El Salvador from FUNDE. The economy improved slightly during the first three months of 2011 at least compared to last year. However, they are predicting a slowdown in the fourth quarter and a not so rosy 2012.

Central American violence claims three more victims

2011-12-23T00:10:00.000-05:00

In case you haven't heard, the Peace Corps is pulling its volunteers out of Honduras and freezing new volunteers to El Salvador and Guatemala. It's a sad day indeed.

Kristina Edmunson, a Peace Corps spokeswoman in Washington, said the moves stemmed from “comprehensive safety and security concerns” rather than any specific threat or incident.

However, a Peace Corps volunteer in Honduras was recently shot in the leg during a botched bus assault. I also heard that several PCVs in Guatemala were robbed on a bus about two weeks ago. The violence does not appear to yet have targeted PCVs, but they continue to be caught up in the violence that affects the Salvadoran, Guatemalan, and Honduran people daily.

I said on Twitter that they should send the volunteers to Nicaragua. I wasn't really joking. It's a beautiful country. The volunteers could learn a lot and the people of Nicaragua could use the help. It's still in Central America. And it's a lot safer.

The other destination is Colombia where the Peace Corps reopened in 2010 after a twenty-nine year absence. There aren't that many PCVs serving in Colombia yet but the country should be able to handle more than the 20 or so that are currently placed.

I sincerely hope that the Peace Corps does not pull out of El Salvador and Guatemala as I fear a return to the region will be a long time in the making.

Confusing Crime Statistics from Siglo XXI

2011-12-21T15:32:00.000-05:00

The last column includes November and December estimates.

Last time we looked, Siglo XXI threw on its front page odd murder statistics. This time, it takes on all forms of violence. According to Siglo XXI's reporting using PNC statistics, kidnappings (los secuestros), extortion (extorsiones) and the robbing of cell phones (robos de celulares) have increased over the last four years.

There were 213 reported kidnappings in 2008 and 104 during the first ten months of 2011. So Guatemala should end up with about 120. That's a pretty big decrease and, from what I can read, should be celebrated rather than hyped as an increase. The final numbers should be below the 133 kidnappings reported in 2010.

They report 1,787 cases of extortion reported in 2008 and 3,345 during the first ten months of the year. If we estimate 334 in November and another 334 in December, Guatemala will end up with around 4,000 reported extortion attempts, an alarming increase over four years. Any good news? Well, if the year ends with 4,000 extortion cases, that is 200 less than last year.

Okay, how about cell phones? 37,225 were reported stolen in 2008, 33,758 in 2009, and 31,479 in 2010. They don't give 2011 statistics, but from my limited math skills, I read these numbers indicating a downward trend as well.

No need to tackle homicides again, but here goes. If Guatemala finishes the year with ~5,600 homicides, it will be the lowest since 2005! 2009, 2008, and 2010 will remain the years with the greatest numbers of murders, but 2011 will continue what we all hope is a continued downward trend.

Given that most media outlets seem to report that things were rosy before President Colom took office, I should just repeat that 5,885 were murdered in 2006 and 5,781 in 2007. So, again, murders will be down in Colom's last year compared to his first year as well as compared to the two year's prior to his taking office.

You can read the rest of the table yourself, but you get the picture. Extortion, stolen cars, and reports of intra-family violence have worsened. Statistics on murders, kidnappings, and bus assaults have improved. Cell phone robberies were down in 2010 compared to 2008 (no 2011 estimates).

Unfortunately, they do not provide statistics from 2006 and 2007. That would give us a better idea as to what was going on during the two years prior to the Colom presidency. For example, Mario Polanco at GAM criticizes the administration because over 5,000 murders have occurred each year without reporting that there were also over 5,000 murders in 2005, 2006, and 2007.

Or they let Mario Mérida, an "expert in security" say that there was an increase in crime during the first three years of Colom's term and some improvement during the first three-quarters of this year. That's better, but not entirely accurate. 2010 looks to have been a better year statistically than 2009.

And none of this takes into consideration growth over the last four years. With more people, cars, and cell phones any decrease in the total numbers of murders, robberies, etc. looks even better in terms of the rate. From my reading of the situation, crime increased for much of the last decade and continued to worsen during the first two years of Colom's administration. However, murder, extortion, kidnapping, and bus assaults have shown improvement the last two years.

A forgotten invasion, a forgotten dictator

2011-12-21T09:34:00.000-05:00

I have another piece at Al Jazeera. This time it is on the return of Manuel Noriega to Panama. I wrote it about ten days ago so it seems a bit outdated. However, yesterday was the anniversary of the start of the US invasion of Panama in 1989.

Here's the end of "A forgotten invasion, a forgotten dictator."

Guillermo Sanchez Borbon, co-author of a Noriega biography, said that, "We Panamanians are the kind of people to make a fuss for a couple of days and then move on." For the most part, Noriega no longer stirs up strong emotions among the people of Panama.

And what are we to do here in the US? Most students in my Latin American Politics course this semester were born after the invasion of Panama. Most admitted that this was the first time that they had ever heard of the invasion and Manuel Noriega. I would venture to guess that they are not alone. Few Americans know very much about our country's relationship with Noriega pre-invasion, the 1989 invasion itself, or his 20 years in a Miami prison.

After a flurry of news articles this week in the US, we are unlikely to hear anything else of the man and the country he once ruled until he passes from this earth. Like the people of Panama, the US can move on.

Central America Links

2011-12-20T11:09:00.000-05:00

Here are some links from recent days that should be of interest.

Legal actions continue against retired Generals Héctor Mario López Fuentes and Oscar Humberto Mejía Víctores. You'll also find some information here on attacks against Paz y Paz attempts to hold the guerrillas responsible for some of the crimes they committed.

Efrain Rios Montt goes on the offensive.

President Colom apologized for the military's 1982 massacre at Dos Erres.

Tim has information on Progressive tax reform in El Salvador.

Voices from El Salvador has notes on Durban, El Salvador and Climate Change.

Barbara Doherty has Protestors Condemn Mining Corporation Suing El Salvador for IPS.

Inocente Montano, who is facing immigration charges in MA, was confused about the implications of pleading guilty to the charges. His hearing was rescheduled for next month. Montano is alleged to have participated in ordering the killing of six Jesuits in 1989.

After what must have been a heart-wrenching weekend, Lori Berenson arrived back in the United States yesterday.

I’ll try to be back with more later but I am trying to finish up some grading after spending yesterday at Freedom House in NYC.

Presidential Approval Ratings

2011-12-18T11:09:00.000-05:00

CID-Gallup released approval ratings for the various Central American presidents last week. The surveys were carried out in October and November.

Given how disappointed many Salvadorans and Salvadoran watchers are with President Funes, it's interesting to see that the majority of the population still evaluate him so favorably. Fifty-seven percent say that he has done a good or very good job. The numbers are well below his highs, but pretty darn good particularly compared to his neighbors.

In Guatemala, Colom leaves office with terrible support, the lowest in the region at 17%. I tend to give Colom a little higher marks than those surveyed for a few reasons. Murders are down again this year and should be at their lowest level since 2005. Poverty has increased, but it's been a tough international economic environment and Guatemala has been struck by a number of natural disasters that have not helped.

Colom was politically destroyed by the Rosenberg murder/suicide through no fault of his own. Congress has been mostly useless. The media were never fond of Colom and have given him a harder time than previous presidents. I hope that this is a sign of independence and maturity on the part of the media that will continue into the next administration, but we will have to wait and see.

While the government isn't against using violence to evict campesinos and to support business interests, the Colom administration does not appear to have been operating death squads out of government ministries like previous ones have.

While the perceived level of corruption as measured by Transparency International increased in 2011, I think that a lot of the increase can be explained by the media's coverage of corruption cases and successful arrests (and subsequent acquittals) of high profile individuals. For now, I am not convinced that corruption is much higher than previous administrations. While the media makes it sound as it corruption in government offices didn't exist before Colom, there's a reasons that CICIG was brought to Guatemala.

Finally, Colom's administration has moved to arrest several high profile drug traffickers, former presidents, and human rights violators from the civil war years.

Now, Colom wasn't personally responsible for all that occurred during his term. But that doesn't matter. Guatemalans have spoken and it's not pretty. Colom has the lowest approval ratings of all the Central American presidents.

Berenson now barred from leaving Peru

2011-12-17T10:39:00.000-05:00

The AP is now reporting that Lori Berenson has been denied permission from leaving Peru to spend the holidays in New York with her family.

"They didn't let me leave and they're putting out this version that I arrived late," she said in a brief phone call with The Associated Press, referring to media reports citing unnamed airport officials.

Peru's anti-terrorism prosecutor, Julio Galindo, told the AP that on Friday he asked the court that approved Berenson's leave to nullify the decision because it violated a law prohibiting paroled prisoners to leave the country.

He said he did not know if the court had acted on his appeal.

Berenson, who was paroled last year after serving 15 years for aiding leftist rebels, was given permission to leave the country beginning Friday with the stipulation that she return by Jan. 11.

She had been denied such permission in October, but a three-judge appeals court on Wednesday overturned that lower court judge's ruling, said Guillermo Gonzalez, spokesman for Peru's judicial system.

On Friday, we learned that a Peruvian court had granted Berenson the opportunity to travel to NY between December 16th and January 11th. She would have the opportunity to spend Christmas and New Year's with friends and family as well as celebrate her dad's seventieth birthday. However, she would then have to return to Peru and finish her sentence that runs through 2015.

Perhaps now is a good time for President Humala to step in and say that we are done, that he doesn't want her treatment to become an embarrassment for the people of Peru. Acting in the holiday spirit, it's best the he commute her sentence and let her return to the US for good.

Berenson to travel to NY for the holidays

2011-12-16T10:15:00.000-05:00

A Peruvian judge has given Lori Berenson permission to travel to New York for the holidays in order to spend Christmas with her family. Her father is correct in worrying that a negative public reaction from Peruvians to this development could still derail things. While other convicted terrorists can be forgiven, she cannot. Fortunately, while Berenson confirmed that she has permission to leave the country, said texted "I am not speaking to the press."

Funes before Funes

2011-12-16T08:54:00.000-05:00

Salvadorenos en el Mundo

There was sad news out of El Salvador last week as Héctor Silva (1964-2011) passed away following a massive heart attack. Hector was a trained physician, had been involved in the creation of the Democratic Revolutionary Front (FDR), was elected to congress, was two-time mayor of San Salvador, and launched an unsuccessful bid for the presidency in 2004.

Like President Mauricio Funes, Hector was sympathetic towards the FMLN but not an FMLN militant. He was elected mayor of San Salvador in 1997 on a ticket led by the FMLN just as Funes led a coalition ticket for the presidency in 2009. Both provided the FMLN with credibility beyond the organization's historic militants. Neither Silva nor Funes would have won without the FMLN just as the FMLN would not have won without them leading the ticket.

Hector's name was thrown around as a candidate for the 1999 presidential election. There were some who believed his popular stint as mayor of San Salvador would make him a strong candidate for the FMLN. As Voices from El Salvador wrote last week, he

oversaw the opening of the first landfill in Central America, decentralization of city services, and rehabilitation of the historic downtown area. He made civic participation a priority and enacted several relations that facilitated public input on how city funds were used. He also made the municipal government more transparent and simplified the administrative process.

Instead, the FMLN selected a terrible candidate in Facundo Guardado. Silva, in all likelihood, would not have won the election anyway but I think that a strong candidacy would have put the FMLN in a better position heading into the 2004 election. On the other hand, five years was a long time for anything to happen and had the FMLN still nominated Schafik Handal in 2004, they probably would have lost again anyway.

I remember interviewing Hector in 2004 a few weeks after losing his presidential bid at the head of the United Center Democrats and Christian Democratic Party (CDU-PDC) coalition. He was pretty bitter towards the FMLN at the time. He spoke about how he had thought that people used the term communist simply to discredit Handal and the FMLN; that it wasn't really true. However, shortly after the 2004 election, he wasn’t so sure. He wouldn't go into detail about why, whether he meant organization's goals, the way it made decisions, or both. He left it at “they’re a bunch of communists.”

Silva was a fine man and those who had the privilege to meet him, even once, will dearly miss him. Above all, the Salvadoran people will.

(see also Contrapunto, Contrapunto II, Contrapunto III, Voices from El Salvador, Envio (1997), El Faro, Miami Herald)

Nomination of US Ambassador to El Salvador Derailed

2011-12-14T09:18:00.000-05:00

On Monday, the Senate rejected President Barrack Obama's nominee for ambassador to El Salvador. Mari Carmen Aponte’s nomination was derailed primarily by Senate Republicans. Aponte was a recess appointment last year and by most measures seems to have done a fine job representing the interests of the United States in El Salvador. However, there seem to be three main reasons why she failed to win the nomination this week.

First, Senate Republicans were unhappy with her and the administration's failure to provide them with information about a romantic relationship that she had over a decade ago with a man tied to Cuban intelligence. Some senators wanted more information surrounding the allegations that Cuban intelligence even tried to recruit her. While the FBI twice cleared her of the allegations, that wasn't enough.

Second, Aponte also published an op-ed in Salvadoran newspapers advocating for the "For the Elimination of Prejudices Wherever They Exist," specifically in regards to the country's gay and lesbian community. Her op-ed was consistent with U.S. foreign policy and with the responsibilities of the Salvadoran government under a variety of international treaties. However, that wasn't enough for Senate Republicans who claim that her statements were un-ambassadorial in a country with such a large Catholic population.

Finally, and what I think is the strongest reason, her nomination was derailed because that is one of the few ways in which Republican members of Congress can show their disapproval of the president's policies towards Central and South America. Operation Fast and Furious, fraud in the Nicaraguan election, violence in the Northern Triangle and Mexico, Iran’s influence in Latin America, and the Castro brothers’ vitality all played a role in Aponte’s failed nomination.

Senator Rubio, for instance, claims that his vote against Aponte was not against her personally. He used his vote to express his repudiation of the president's policies towards Nicaragua and Cuba. Rubio even said that he was willing to support her nomination had he been convinced that the president was going to take a more supportive stance towards democracy in the region, particularly in Nicaragua and Cuba.

While I might disagree with the Senate on Aponte’s nomination and the administration’s approach to Latin America, they are fully within their rights to reject her nomination because that’s the way they can try to influence the administration’s policies towards the region. Unfortunately, good people like Ambassador Aponte sometimes lose out.

FMLN apologizes for the military's massacre

2011-12-12T08:57:00.001-05:00

From this weekend in El Salvador

"I would like to take this opportunity to reiterate on behalf of the government of El Salvador our request for forgiveness to the thousands of innocent victims, but especially the victims of the massacre at El Mozote," Hugo Martinez, the country’s foreign minister, said.

Martinez noted that Mauricio Funes, the country's first democratically-elected president since the civil war, had already apologised for other violent incidents attributed to the army, state security forces and paramilitary groups.

"This event seeks to honour the memory of hundreds of innocent people who were murdered 30 years ago here in El Mozote and in other nearby hamlets," he said.

It's important that the Salvadoran state ask for forgiveness and take responsibility for the acts carried out in its name during the country's civil war. However, just like the earlier apologies from President Funes and those from Alvaro Colom in Guatemala, it'll really be something when those who ordered the killings or covered-up them up ask for forgiveness. Funes and the FMLN were not responsible for the massacre.

In Guatemala, it doesn't look like President-elect Otto Perez Molina is going to continue President Colom's unearthing of the past. From Perez Molina's perspective, there's nothing for which to apologize.

In El Salvador, President Funes has another two and one-half years in office. As of today, it doesn't look like ARENA is poised to follow in Funes' footsteps should they win the 2014 presidential election. And from ARENA's perspective, I can just hear them argue that the massacre at El Mozote, even if there was one, was not their responsibility. The massacre occurred under the civil-military junta "led" by José Napoleón Duarte of the Christian Democratic Party. The reason ARENA formed was because they disagreed with how the government was prosecuting the war.

~~Hugo Martinez also~~ Human rights ombudsman Oscar Luna said another thing that provides some hope that the Funes administration will work harder to revisit human rights violations from the civil war era. Tim reports that Luna ~~Martinez~~ "called for a repeal of the Amnesty Law, a judicial investigation of those responsible for the command and control of the massacre, and concrete reparations including financial, medical, psycho-social and legal assistance to the families of the victims." Unfortunately, Luna does not hold formal powers and his words are inconsistent with the Funes' administration so far.

~~Now the people of El Salvador will have to hold Martinez and the government to their promise.~~

***Sorry about having to make the changes. Tim pointed out that it was Luna who called on the government to make things rights rather than Martinez.

Noriega returns home to Panama

2011-12-11T15:12:00.000-05:00

On Sunday, Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega returned to his native country following twenty-plus years in US and French jails. He returns home to serve his remaining days in a Panamanian prison as long as he is not released to house arrest because of old age.

The AP has a story on his return and how Panama is a much different country from which he left over twenty years ago. I am sure that it is. On the other hand, I imagine that Noriega is looking around the region and feeling right at home.

Daniel Ortega and the Sandinistas are in power in Nicaragua. Honduras recently suffered a military coup. The generals are back in charge in Guatemala. Costa Rica is still the region's strongest democracy. The Castro brothers remain in control of Cuba. The FARC are still operating in their southern neighbor. The FMLN is in power in El Salvador.

Okay, maybe that last one is a little different. One would probably have to throw the PRI in Mexico in there as well.

I guess the other thing that he is asking himself is "Why me?" Of all the dictators and guerrillas in Central America to have committed human rights violations, why was I the only one to get put away for twenty years?

El Mozote - Thirty Years Later

2011-12-10T15:54:00.000-05:00

December 11 marks the thirtieth anniversary of the massacre at El Mozote, El Salvador. In December 1981, the Atlacatl Batallion massacred over 800 men, women, and children in the single worst massacre in recent Central American history.

For the last few days, Tim's El Salvador Blog has been running a series of posts surrounding the massacre including the victims, the survivor, the media, the responsibility of the United States, and efforts to find justice.

The El Mozote Massacre -- 30 years later

Rufina Amaya the survivor

the reporters

the US role

Seeking Justice in Spite of the Amnesty Law

Funes meets with victims' families

the rebirth of hope

Thanks Tim for bringing this all together.

Corruption back on the rise in Guatemala

2011-12-09T09:11:00.000-05:00

I have another post up at Al Jazeera today. This time it's on corruption in Guatemala.

Basically, I'm not entirely convinced that Guatemala is anymore corrupt than it was a few years ago even though its score on the Corruption Perception Index of Transparency International showed a sharp decline from 2010 to 2011 meaning its much more corrupt.

I think a lot of the increase has to do with the uncovering of corruption by Paz y Paz and CICIG which I mention at the end of the piece. What I didn't mention is the role of the media. It sure seems as though Guatemala's media is much more focused on uncovering corruption in politics today than they were a few years ago. Perhaps it's because there is more corruption with Colom than other presidents.

It's also possible, however, that the media is more committed to uncovering corrupt acts today and will continue to be so going forward (which is a good thing). It's also possible that they never liked Colom and have been harder on him than they were on Portillo and Berger. I guess we'll have to wait to see whether their committing to uncovering corruption is just related to Colom or will continue into the next Perez administration.

Where's the homicide rate going in Guatemala?

2011-12-09T08:50:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, Siglo XXI highlighted an article on the front of its webpage Mafia Violence Prevails in Election Year. In it, they refer to official sources that claim over 5,500 murders had been committed in Guatemala so far this year, making it one of the most violent years in its history. I had yet to come across November murder statistics, so I held back and hoped that November just wasn't as violent as the article made it out to appear.

And I had the same concerns about the murder statistics as Carlos Mendoza. According to the National Civilian Police, 4,733 murders were committed during the first ten months of the year. That meant, if the article was being accurate, over 767 murders would have had to have been carried out in November! Fortunately, no such thing happened as 459 murders were reported in November.

Guatemala now counts 5,192 murders heading into the last month of the year. If 472 murders occur in December (that's the monthly average murder count so far this year), Guatemala will finish the year having suffered through approximately 5,664 murders.

Obviously, we all want the number of murders to get as close to zero as possible. However, one also has to recognize how much progress has made in reducing murders in Guatemala in 2010 and 2011.

I did see an article from InSight earlier in the week that actually reported murders were in decline even as Guatemalans still feel the security situation has deteriorated. That's good and better than most of the other articles we read about murders spiraling out of control in Guatemala. So thank you.

On the other hand, it's up to Siglo XXI and other media organization not to post articles with incorrect murder statistics. While Guatemala is by no means entirely safe, their incorrect reporting helps to feed the growing sense of insecurity in the country.

Guatemala's Crime-Fighting Prosecutor's Job is Safe, For Now

2011-12-08T12:45:00.001-05:00

Hannah Stone at InSight Crime has a really good article on Guatemala's Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz entitled Guatemala's Crime-Fighting Prosecutor's Job is Safe, For Now. In recent weeks, a smear campaign against Paz y Paz has been orchestrated in the major means of communications.

There have also been concerns that President-elect Otto Perez Molina would remove her so as to put an end to prosecutions against former military officials. Fortunately, Perez met with Paz y Paz on Tuesday to assure her that she would remain in her post when he takes office in January. That's great news because, as I mentioned last month, Paz y Paz is someone that will help the incoming administration to continue to right the ship in Guatemala.

In Plaza Publica's defense of Paz y Paz the other day, they highlighted her role going after Gloria Torres and her daughters.

This case can be interpreted for those who have not noticed, as a sign of Paz y Paz's independence from the governing UNE, a party that would have preferred another lawyer instead of her at the front of the MP.

On the other hand, I read several comments on El Periodico's website the other day explaining Paz y Paz's decision to go after Gloria Torres as having been driven by a desire to deflect attention away from President Alvaro Colom and former first lady Sandra Torres. One more thing. Paz y Paz, in the same article I think, was faulted for helping to cover up Rosenberg's murder.

Obviously, I don't subscribe to this explanation, but it's still important to know what some other people are saying in Guatemala. There are usually more than two sides to every story.

Guatemalan Foreign Minister criticizes US

2011-12-08T08:17:00.000-05:00

On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Haroldo Rodas criticized President Barack Obama's efforts, or lack thereof, at extending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to Guatemalan nationals residing in the United States and moving forward on comprehensive immigration reform.

Rodas is probably right but coming out like this is not going to help his replacement, Harold Caballeros. However, it's more fair to blame Obama for not moving forward on TPS which his administration could extend without congressional input. There wouldn't even be any political "fallout" from TPS. Even though most Americans tend to lean towards supporting some version of comprehensive immigration reform, it would be a much tougher battle to get through congress.

And while I am in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, I have a feeling that by the time it ever moves through the House and the Senate and then is signed into law by the president, no one is going to like what it looks like.

Colom should respond to 28,000 murdered

2011-12-05T21:36:00.000-05:00

According to Sergio Morales, Guatemala's human rights ombudsmen, President Alvaro Colom should respond to the 28,000 murders committed during his four year in office. However, I'm not entirely sure as to what numbers he is referring to.

As you can see in the table above, the total number of murders in Guatemala increased sharply from 2000 to 2009. President Colom took office in January 2008. Murders then decreased in 2010 and, while this year isn't over yet, it looks like 2011 will again have fewer murders.

According to the National Civilian Police's reporting, 18,750 Guatemalans were killed during Colom's first three years in office. For Morales' numbers to be accurate, Guatemala would have to have suffered another 10,000 murders in 2011!!! "Fortunately," Guatemala is is only on pace for between 5,600-5,700 murders.

The total number of murders and the murder rates were terrible each year of Colom's term. However, they improved in 2010 and 2011. And 2011's total look to be the lowest that the country has recorded since 2005.

Spain asks for extradition in UCA Jesuits killings

2011-12-04T23:13:00.000-05:00

On Friday, the Spanish government accepted judge Eloy Velasco's request that it formally request the extradition of fifteen former Salvadoran military officials, two of whom currently reside in the US. (AP, Contrapunto).

The men are wanted in connection with the massacre of six Jesuit priests, their housekeeper and her daughter at the University of Central American in November 1989. The Spanish judge wants them extradited so that they can stand trial on charges of murder, terrorism and crimes against humanity.

I still can't see the men actually being extradited to Spain. In the past, legal processes begun in Spain do seem to have had an effect on helping to start or give extra support to proceedings in Chile and Guatemala. I am hopeful that Spain's actions will have the same effect in El Salvador. However, for the most part, the Salvadoran courts and President Funes have shown little indication that they are overly interested in reopening the case in El Salvador.

31st Anniversary of U.S. Churchwomen Murders

2011-12-02T08:57:00.000-05:00

On December 2, 1980, four U.S. churchwomen were raped and murdered by allies of the U.S. government in El Salvador. From Scott McCabe of the Washington Examiner

The night before flying into El Salvador, Ford read a passage from a homily by Archbishop Oscar Romero, who had been assassinated nine months earlier, "[O]ne who is committed to the poor must run the same fate as the poor, and in El Salvador we know what the fate of the poor signifies: to disappear, be tortured, to be held captive -- and to be found dead."

The next day, members of the El Salvadoran national guard stopped their vehicle. The women were tortured, raped and murdered.

Then December 6th is the anniversary of the 1982 massacre of Dos Erres by the Guatemalan military in the Peten. And the 11th is the anniversary of the 1981 massacre at El Mozote by the Salvadoran military in Morazan.

Click here for what I wrote last year on the Churchwomen murders.

Rubio and Menendez condemn Ortega

2011-12-01T16:16:00.000-05:00

From the Nicaragua Dispatch

U.S. Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Bob Menendez (D-NJ) today introduced a bipartisan resolution “In support of the democratic aspirations of the Nicaraguan people and calling attention to the continuing deterioration of constitutional order in Nicaragua,” according to a press release from the office of Sen. Rubio.

Wow, it would have been nice had they issued the same condemnations following the 2009 coup in Honduras. See also Has Ortega fatigue reached tipping point?

Gloria Torres - fugitive from justice

2011-11-30T18:05:00.000-05:00

On Wednesday morning, Guatemalan authorities raided the home of Gloria Torres, the sister of former first lady Sandra Torres. Torres and ten to seventeen other accomplices, including two of her daughters, are wanted in connection with money laundering and fraud. While Gloria Torres was not home, one daughter, Christa Castañeda Torres, was apprehended. She appeared before a judge this afternoon and is now sitting in a prison cell in Guatemala City.

According to authorities, Gloria Torres and her accomplices were involved in laundering at least half a million quetzales through contracts for "ghost work" in La Democracia, Huehuetango and El Quiché between 2005 and 2007. There looks to be other criminal activity in Petén, Jutiapa, and Chiquimula as well.

The allegations are nothing new, but I'm with Otto Perez Molina here, it's kind of weird that the arrests are being launched with one month remaining in Alvaro Colom's presidency. On the other hand, if you are the authorities you probably want to make sure that your evidence is really convincing before going after such a close member of the president’s family.

So this doesn't help my argument that Alvaro Colom's administration appears to have been less corrupt than the Berger and Portillo administrations. However, at least for now, the authorities are looking at what happened between 2005 and 2007. Then again, I'm not naive enough to believe that Gloria Torres and the others, if they were laundering money between 2005 and 2007, just so happened to stop when Alvaro Colom was elected president.

Inocente Orlando Montano charged with lying

2011-11-30T00:44:00.008-05:00

Inocente Orlando Montano has been charged with lying under oath and making false statements on immigration forms in Massachusetts. Montano was a colonel in the Salvadoran armed forces allegedly involved in the murders of six Jesuits, their housekeeper, and daughter at the University of Central America in November 1989. He was arrested outside Boston in August. No trial date has been set.

Montano might eventually go to trial and serve a prison sentence. On the other hand, the US might just be using the time to see what happens in El Salvador and Spain before deciding what to do next.

In another important case, a Canadian immigration judge is hearing arguments as to whether Jose Orantes Sosa should be extradited to the United States. Sosa is wanted in the US for lying on his immigration paperwork years ago.

However, Sosa is alleged to have participated in the massacre of 200-plus men, women and children at Dos Erres, Guatemala in 1982. A Guatemalan man who is now a Canadian citizen and whose entire family was killed in the massacre is asking the immigration judge to reject the US' extradition request so that Sosa can be tried in Canada. Activists are also calling on the Canadian government to bring charges against Sosa for his involvement in the massacre.

I'm not in favor of having Sosa extradited to the U.S. He should be extradited to Guatemala and have his day in court. If Guatemala is unwilling or unable to prosecute Sosa, then try him in Canada. Granted I understand that we don't know what's going to happen under the new president in Guatemala. Canada would probably also have to revoke his Canadian citizenship. But given that several other Dos Erres suspects have already been found guilty, it's hard to make the argument that he'll just walk free should he (at some point) be extradited to Guatemala.

A changing of the guard in El Salvador

2011-11-29T11:06:00.000-05:00

I have an op-ed up at Al Jazeera on the recent resignation of Manuel Melgar and the appointment of David Munguia Payes in El Salvador.

Munguia Payes' replacement of Melgar as Minister of Justice and Public Security is causing a bit of controversy in El Salvador - maybe even as much as Melgar's appointment did in the U.S. Embassy back in 2009.

Here's the intro, but you'll have to click through to read the entire article.

Manuel Melgar resigned as the Minister of Justice and Public Security two weeks ago in El Salvador. Initially, there was no public explanation for his voluntary resignation. On Tuesday, President Mauricio Funes appointed retired general David Munguía Payés to replace Melgar. The alleged involvement of the United States in Melgar's resignation, the role of the military in post-war El Salvador, and President Funes' relfationship with the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) are three important issues related to Melgar's replacement with Munguía Payés.

I am going to be writing some longer op-ed pieces for Al Jazeera on the politics of Central America every month. I'll let you know about them here, but you'll have to visit their site to read the entire articles.

Video on Gender-Based Violence in Guatemala

2011-11-28T19:30:00.000-05:00

Here's a short video clip from UNICEF about violence against women in children in Guatemala.

It's a good follow-up from my post earlier today on femicide. It's a horrific story. However, the victim wasn't murdered and therefore would not show up in statistics that measure violence against women and children by homicide.

Does femicide obscure more than it illuminates?

2011-11-28T08:06:00.000-05:00

Two thousand women marched through the streets of Guatemala City last week in support of the UN's International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women.

"Violence and impunity are still the major problems facing Guatemalan women. Violent deaths are not ending, and the crimes are more and more violent," activist Sandra Moran told AFP.

As I mentioned last week, femicide, or the intentional killing of women, continues to be a major concern in Guatemala. Approximately 650 women have so far been killed this year and the country is on pace to record the same number of female murder victims as 2010.

Obviously, it's terrible anytime that a person is killed. However, it's important to keep a few things in mind when it comes to the murder rate of women in Guatemala. Most of the following statistics come from Carlos A. Mendoza's post on ¡NO MAS VIOLENCIA CONTRA LAS MUJERES!

First, Guatemala's homicide rate in 2010 was 41 per 100,000. This is the rate based upon the entire country's population. For men, the homicide rate was 75 per 100,000 and the rate was 9 per 100,000 for women. In terms of homicides, it's dangerous to be a female but it's much more dangerous to be a male, especially a young male.

Second, while the absolute number of women killed in Guatemala is on pace to reach the number killed last year, the rate in 2010 (9 per 100,000) and probably 2011 will be down from 2008 and 2009 (10 per 100,000). Not great, but again, I'd rather that the rate be in decline than on the uptick. On the other hand, the drop in the murder rate between 2009 and 2010 was much greater among men (85 to 75 per 100,000) than it was among women (10 to 9 per 100,000).

Third, on average, 18% of the world's murder victims are women. In Guatemala, 10% of the victims are women. Therefore, as a percentage of murders in Guatemala compared to other areas of the world, women are murdered at a lower rate than men. In the United States, 21% of the homicide victims in 2005 were women. As recently as 2008, 23% of the US' murder victims were women.

Finally, the 838 women killed last year is the maximum number of women killed because of femicide - they were killed because they were women or as a consequence of gender-based violence. Some of the women were killed in robberies, extortion attempts, and drive-by shootings of one kind or another. Not all were necessarily killed because they were women. So the 838 number is the maximum number of women who were intentionally killed because they were women.

My point isn't to say that life for women in Guatemala is easy or that one should be happy about any reduction or leveling off of the murder rate against women. I would say that when we talk about femicide or the killing of women in Guatemala and around the world, one can't just start and stop with the number killed.

The killing of women in Guatemala and elsewhere is particularly heinous because women are often killed by their spouses or other family members. Women are frequently the victim of long-term abuse that only ends in murder. Focusing solely on their deaths neglects the long-term suffering that they endured in life.

Finally, women are often sexually abused or tortured immediately before being killed. Their bodies are then left in a public place, for among other reasons, to instill fear in others. It's not just that women are murdered; it's the fact that they are so horribly victimized in death.

Those who use the term femicide would most likely agree that the term is not meant to characterize only the act of murder. However, I do wonder whether the increased use of the term obscures more than it illuminates.

New Genocide video about Guatemala

2011-11-27T23:52:00.000-05:00

NISGUA reports that the Association for Justice and Reconciliation (AJR) and the Center for Human Rights Legal Action (CALDH) have released a 30 minute Spanish-language documentary entitled "Our Voice, Our Memory: The genocide in Guatemala."

The documentary, available in full online, uses survivor and expert testimony to explain the concept of genocide, demonstrating how the atrocities committed by the Guatemalan military against indigenous Maya communities satisfy the requirements of the international legal definition of genocide.

It's important to remember and share with others how particularly brutal was the Guatemala army's counterinsurgency campaign. While I think that it is important to remember that the U.S. and the Guatemalan government were fighting Marxist-Leninist groups aligned with the Soviets and the Cubans, that does not excuse them for the criminal acts committed against both the guerrillas and the civilian population.

House Arrest in Guatemala?

2011-11-24T23:12:00.000-05:00

On Sunday, I noted that it is possible that upon his extradition to Panama, former military strongman Manuel Noriega might get to spend the rest of his years under house arrest. A Panamanian law allows elder convicts to fulfill their punishment under house arrest rather than prison. It doesn't look like this will be the case with Noriega as a prison bed is already prepared for him. However, I wrote that it would be a travesty should he get to spend the remaining years of his life under house arrest.

I don't like the idea, but travesty might have been too strong a condemnation. Maybe it's because of celebrating Thanksgiving today, but I feel uncomfortable with wanting eighty- and ninety-year old men to suffer, no matter what they've done.

Well, someone in Guatemala must have heard about the Panamanian law because they are considering legislation that would allow convicts over the age of eighty to serve their remaining years under house arrest. The bill originally excluded individuals convicted of human rights violations, but at some point the clause was removed.

Human rights activists are obviously concerned that the bill is an attempt to ensure that even if high ranking officials from the early eighties are convicted of crimes against humanity and genocide, this law might ensure that they never spend a day in their life behind bars (See Oscar Mejia).

I can’t say that I am the biggest fan of letting octogenarians fulfill their prison terms under house arrest. However, at this point, I am more concerned that these men have their day in court. They should be tried for crimes related to their conduct during the war. Even if they never have to spend a day in prison, it will be something remarkable for a Guatemalan court to find them guilty of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.

They could spend the rest of their lives under house arrest, but history will not absolve them.

Noriega one step closer to returning home

2011-11-23T16:24:00.001-05:00

A Paris appeals court ruled Wednesday to grant an extradition request from Panama so the elderly ex-military strongman can serve out sentences given after he was convicted in absentia there, in the latest phase of his complex legal odyssey.

France's prime minister, Francois Fillon, now needs to sign an administrative decree allowing for Noriega to be transferred, possibly within days. (NPR)

According to NPR's reporting, Noriega "turned into an embarrassment for the U.S. after he sidled up to Colombia's Medellin drug cartel and turned to crime." I'm not so sure how accurate that it is. From what I understand, Noriega had been working with the Colombians (drug trafficking) and the Americans (resupplying the contras) for some time.

It wasn't that he became an embarrassment to the US (we have plenty of embarrassing allies) as much as he no longer was working with the US to supply the contras in order to help overthrow the Sandinistas in Nicaragua. He even worked to help end the Central American civil wars.

Once he was no longer helpful in supplying the contras, it made no little sense to overlook his drug trafficking ties. But even then, disagreements within the US government remained as to whether to cut ties with him. Some thought he was still useful, others did not.

Then there are the other issues such as the security of thousands of US soldiers and families based in Panama, Bush establishing his foreign policy credentials, and the future of the Panama Canal.

Femicide Continues in Guatemala

2011-11-21T21:36:00.001-05:00

According to official statistics, seven hundred women have been murdered so far this year in Guatemala (see here and here). According to CONAPREVI, 838 women were murdered in 2010.

Therefore, if women continue to be killed at the same rate in November and December as they have been all year (an average of 70 per month), the number of victims this year will be nearly identically to last year's numbers (840).

Meanwhile, Chilean producer Sonia Demeyko stated her intention of making a documentary about Christina Siekavizza. Her disappearance was initially thought to have been a kidnapping but authorities now believe that her husband most likely killed her after an argument in July. He then fled with their two children. His mother, Beatriz Ofelia de Leon, an ex-magistrate of the Supreme Court of Guatemala, was arrested for corruption of justice in this case one month ago.

Noriega looks like he'll be one busy man

2011-11-20T22:22:00.000-05:00

Former Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega looks like he is going to be busy should his extradition from France to Panama go through as planned and he returns to his native country by Christmas.

Salas recalled that Noriega must face six sentences: three for homicide, one for deprivation of freedom, one for corruption and another one for embezzlement...

The Second Superior Court has still to set the date of the trial for the disappearance and death of Heliodoro Portugal (1970), and Noriega will also appear in the Chiriqui Superior Court to respond for the disappearances of Everett Clayton Kimble and Luis Quiroz Morales in 1968 and 1969, respectively.

On the one hand, these additional trials don't really matter much for Noriega. He's already set to serve at least twenty years in El Renacer for the 1989 murders of Hugo Spadafora and Moises Giroldi.

On the other hand, I came across an article that is particularly worrisome.

It is widely known that he has long wanted to return to his home country. Many say that is because Noriega will essentially find freedom in Panama. “Here they will just let him go,” Francisco, the brother of the disappeared activist, worried.

His concern is not unfounded, despite the fact that Panamanian judges have already condemned Noriega in absentia to more than 60 years in prison for crimes against political opponents. Article 107 of Panama’s penal code says convicts who are over 70 can exchange jail cells for house arrest.

According to Sanjuro, Article 107 always “had Noriega’s name on it.” He says the law was crafted by the government of ex-president Martin Torrijos in large part to exonerate Noriega upon his eventual return.

Sanjuro shares the concerns that Noriega will spend his last days in the comfort of his own home, but is adamant about getting the former strongman into a Panamanian court. If Noriega lives to complete his current jail sentence in France in 2014 he will then be a free man, Sanjuro reminded.

The uncertainty surrounding his future in Panama is no reason to hold up his extradition, but if Noriega is somehow freed or gets to spend the rest of his life under house arrest, it will be a travesty.

Drug Seizures up in Guatemala

2011-11-18T14:34:00.000-05:00

According to the Colom administration, it has seized 7 times more drugs, drug money and goods than the two previous administration's combined. It has also caught several important drug traffickers. That's the good news.

Obviously, the bad news it that more drugs have been passing through Guatemala and more high-profile drug traffickers have been operating in the country during the last four years than probably at any other time in history.

Colom agrees to extradite former president Alfonso Portillo

2011-11-15T20:15:00.000-05:00

On Tuesday, President Alvaro Colom agreed to extradite former President Alfonso Portillo to the United States. The US seeks Portillo's extradition because it accuses him of having laundered $70 million through U.S. banks.

I thought that Colom was going to leave the final decision up to the upcoming president, but I can't really find that link anymore. He also said that he would wait until the legal process in Guatemala had been exhausted before acting. Portillo was cleared of charges in Guatemala earlier this year. He and his lawyers then challenged his extradition in Guatemala's courts, including the Supreme Court of Justice and the Constitutional Court. Those decisions cleared the way for Colom to act.

The US Embassy in Guatemala issued a statement in which it welcomed the decision.

"We applaud the efforts made by the Constitutional Court, the Attorney General's Office and the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala," the embassy said in a written statement. "This sends a strong message that nobody is above the law."

My preference would have been to have Portillo found guilty in a Guatemalan court. However, that was not the case. We'll see what happens in the US.

Here's something I had read before. According to Fox News Latino

The Portillo administration is considered by local analysts as one of the "most corrupt" in the recent history of Guatemala, given the calculations that during the four-year term government officials embezzled more than $500 million.

I've always had the impression that Portillo's four years in office were pretty corrupt. However, I just hadn't seen a dollar figure associated with it.

His administration's corruption is also why I argued that, as of right now, the Colom administration does not appear to have been as corrupt as its predecessors. Obviously, we won't know for a few months or years until the new administration takes the reigns and begins to open the books. However, does any really think that Colom and his administration were able to embezzle nearly half a million dollars with CICIG looking over their shoulders? If so, the CICIG experiment needs to pack its bags and go home.

The Colom administration might have been corrupt in many ways. However, it's tough to agree with El Periodico's editorial that concluded that Colom's legacy to the country is corruption.

Corruption: The Legacy of Colom

2011-11-15T16:21:00.000-05:00

El Periodico has an editorial on Corruption: The Legacy of Colom. In it, they call on the Public Ministry and the Comptroller General to investigate and, if necessary, prosecute Colom and his administration if they uncover wrongdoing.

It's interesting because the editorial attacks both what the Colom administration did (expanding a system whereby government spending occurred through the creation of public trusts without legal regulation, the transfer of state resources to NGOs to avoid congressional oversight, using state resources to ensure political support, etc.) and did not do (no significant progress in the development of the Inter-American and UN Conventions against Corruption, especially regarding the creation of corruption offenses and stiffer penalties assigned to corruption crimes, no progress in reforming civil service laws).

While Colom might not have personally benefited from corruption in terms of financial gains to himself personally (a la Portillo) as I argued last week, that doesn't mean that his administration will emerge unscathed or corruption free.

Again, I hope that the allegations are more spoke than fire. I wouldn't be surprised if there's fire. However, like many evaluations of what he and his administration did or did not do, it will take months if not years to unravel.

Perez promises to improve security during first six months

2011-11-14T22:48:00.000-05:00

President-elect Otto Perez Molina insists that security will improve during his first six months in office. I sure hope so. However, El Nuevo Herald then goes on to report that

Official data indicate that 18 people die violently each day in Guatemala and that the homicide rate per 100,000 population reaches 48, six times the world average.

Look, if you are telling the world that, on average, 18 people per day or 6,570 per year die violent deaths in Guatemala, Otto Perez is going to look like a god-send even if things get much worse six months into office.

Here are the murders that have been committed over the last decade as reported by the PNC in (La Prensa Grafica).

2011 estimate is based upon 4733 during first ten months and 946 for Nov-Dec.

If you are going to measure whether Perez lowers crime and or the country's murder rate, you need to try to find recent data.

I'm fine with statistics from 2010 since we have the full year available. However, that number is about 600 fewer murders than what you are using - 10%!

With six-plus weeks remaining this year, we have a pretty good idea where murders will end up, but 2010 is acceptable. However, why pick 6,500 murders from 2009?

Happy National Pupusa Day!

2011-11-13T21:14:00.000-05:00

November 13th is National Pupusa Day. So enjoy some pupusas, preferably of the frijoles y queso variety, and some Pilseners.

Lynchings up 500 pct in Guatemala since 2004!

2011-11-12T12:35:00.001-05:00

According to reports in the Latin American Herald Tribune and Fox News Latino, lynchings in Guatemala have increased 500% since 2004. However, the reporting is not entirely accurate.

The headlines should read attempted lynchings. According to the human rights office in Guatemala, there were a reported 25 attempted lynchings in 2004 and 147 attempted lynchings during the first ten months of 2011. That's the increase of 500% to which they are referring (~488% actually). {Update - And each attempted lynching might have involved several targets.)

If we are talking about the increase in successful lynchings, the numbers are actually worse. According to the numbers presented in Prensa Libre, deaths as a result of lynchings have increased from 4 in 2004 to 47 so far this year.

Deaths as a result of lynchings, therefore, have increased nearly 1100% since 2004. And that's with two months remaining in the year. That's obviously a much worse percentage change. (There were another 911 seriously injured victims during the time period under study, but none of the articles break these down by year.)

But then again, the increase from 2004 to 2011 is only one part of the story. If you look at the deaths as a result of lynchings by year, you find a jump from 2004 to 2005 and then again from 2008 to 2009. I would want to better understand why lynchings jumped during those years.

And here is what I think is an equally important story that should have been highlighted. Death by lynching is on pace to increase by at least 7% from 2010 to 2011. It's not as sexy as the 500% or 1100% changes, but it's what Guatemalans are living today compared to last year.

Local concerns in Guatemala

2011-11-11T09:34:00.000-05:00

There's at least one more thing from last night's post on President-elect Otto Perez's inheritance that I forgot to mention. While there does appear to have been a reduction in the level of corruption and death squad activity coming out of the national government, at least the executive, local government is in many ways where there has been little progress if any.

In the last few years, organized crime and cartels have been influencing local campaigns and the activities of mayoral offices. Most of us following events in Guatemala from abroad do so by following the major Guatemalan and international news publications which are naturally based in the capital and focused on the activities of the congress and the presidency.

However, there is less reason to be optimistic about what is happening around the country's 333 municipalities.

President-elect Perez's Inheritance

2011-11-10T21:12:00.000-05:00

Earlier in the week I gave my thoughts on some of the potential accomplishments that President Alvaro Colom will leave when he hands the reins of powers to President-elect Otto Perez Molina. See my posts here and here from earlier in the week. You also might want to check out Rachel Glickhouse and Carin Zissis’s Guatemala Election Update: The Roadahead for Pérez Molina from today where they say much the same, only more eloquently.

I argued that there has been some progress in terms of reducing the murder rate. There are what appear to be two very competent people in Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz and Police Reform Commissioner Helen Mack. There has been some success in overcoming impunity with the successful prosecutions of individuals who perpetrated wartime atrocities and a recognition for past crimes committed in the name of the government.

The government has been less successful in prosecuting former officials for corruption and extrajudicial killings. On the positive side, those people seem no longer to be in government. Finally, CICIG has not been perfect but it does seem to have done a good job of removing some corrupt officials, helping to crack high profile cases, and begun training Guatemala's next generation of prosecutors and justice system employees.

However, I said nothing about what President-elect Perez plans to do with his "inheritance." And that's where we should be worried.

President Perez has promised to bring mano dura with him into the presidency. Given the high level of support for mano dura in Guatemala today, Perez is probably going to have his way here. If he just intends to add more police and to deploy some kaibiles and other military to remote areas of the country, the effects probably won't be bad and might even do some good. However, if his idea of mano dura is to send troops into the cities, criminalize tattoos and looking like a gang member, lengthening prison terms for nonviolent and youthful offenders, etc. then I do worry what the future holds. These policies have not worked out so well in neighboring countries.

The question as to how he is going to pay for the new police and other policies is another matter. He wants to cut down on contraband. That's fine and might even help shrink the deficit. However, it's not going to replace fiscal reform. If he shows some progress in curtailing contraband, perhaps the elites will voluntarily agree to raise the amount that they pay in taxes? Yeah, I don't think so either.

As president, Perez does not have to keep Paz y Paz or Mack. Given that he doesn't believe that the military committed genocide in the early 1980s or military officers should be tried for civil war era crimes, it's easy to understand why he might want to get right of Paz y Paz and/or Mack. It's not even clear that either of them would want to be associated with the administration of the former general anyway. The question then becomes whether Perez replaces Paz y Paz with a serious, well-respected AG who only goes after today's crimes (not civil war era crimes) or does he appoint someone who isn't concerned with actually developing the rule of law in Guatemala.

Perez, like some other Guatemalans, have been critical of CICIG and might want it to leave when its terms ends in 2013 or perhaps just have its mandate more focused. Either change probably would not help the people of Guatemala. I still don't know what to expect from a CICIG-Perez partnership. Wasn't CICIG sent to Guatemala to investigate someone like Perez? And Baldizon who is trying to position himself as the 2015 favorite? Would it help if CICIG came out and said that we have looked into allegations of serious wrongdoing by the President-elect and have found no evidence to substantiate the bringing of any charges against him? Then they could move on in peace.

Anyway, the point is that Perez has probably been dealt a better hand than Colom. It still might not be a winning hand and it’ll take some time to better understand how he intends to play his cards. I’m not optimistic. Like many, I wasn’t impressed by the two finalists and I wasn’t going to be optimistic about a presidency led by either man. I pray that I will be proven wrong, however.

In other news,

Mica Rosenberg and Mike McDonald also have a very good article on Special Report: New Guatemala leader faces questions about past and Ezra Fieser tries to figure out what the Roman Catholic Church expects from the new president in Church officials not sure what to expect from new Guatemalan president.

Murders continue downward trend in Guatemala

2011-11-09T23:33:00.000-05:00

According to the Human Rights Ombudsman (PDH) in Guatemala, homicides decreased by 2.50% in the first nine months of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010.

According to Carlos Mendoza's analysis of the first ten months of 2011, Guatemalan is on pace to experience its lowest murder rate since 2004.

Between January and the end of October, the PNC determined that 4,733 people were murdered. If November and December are just as murderous as the first ten months (an average of 473 each month), the country’s annual rate will settle in somewhere under 40 per 100,000. That rate would be the country's lowest since 2004's rate of 36 per 100,000.

Guatemala's 4,733 January through October murders occurred in a population of over fourteen million. By comparison, El Salvador's population of approximately six million suffered through 3,627 murders during the same time period. If El Salvador experiences 764 murders in November and December (362 in Nov. and Dece), its rate would end up around 72.5 per 100,000.

At some point, people are going to have to ~~stop lying about the escalating murder rate in Guatemala~~ update their data from 2009. The question is why is the murder rate going down, not why is it going up.

Spain will ask for extradition

2011-11-09T16:33:00.000-05:00

Spanish Judge Eloy Velasco will ask the Spanish Government to formally request the extradition of 13 military officers alleged to have been involved in the murder of the UCA Jesuits in El Salvador.

In August, the Salvadoran Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) issued an opinion that the red alerts that had been issued for the former military officials required only that they be located. The alerts did not require El Salvador to arrest or to extradite them.

As I wrote in September,

While I can't say that I entirely bought the Supreme Court’s arguments, I figured that its ruling was only a beginning. People shouldn’t have gotten too worked up about the ruling and should instead let the legal process play out (that is, those who weren't actually pushing the case forward). Spanish authorities would in all likelihood alter their request in order to satisfy Salvadoran concerns. Once they had done that, the ball would be back in El Salvador's court. That sure seems to be where we are right now.

"Too worked up" probably wasn't the best choice of words. However, I just though that it was part of the process rather than the conclusion. It's now November and the Spanish judge and government seem to have addressed the concerns of the Salvadoran courts and its government. The ball is now back in El Salvador's possession.

The last ten years in Guatemala

2011-11-08T08:20:00.001-05:00

On Monday, I wrote that President-elect Otto Perez Molina inherits a situation more favorable than his predecessor. The situation in Guatemala is by no means pretty. However, when I say that it is more favorable, I think back to the administrations of Alfonso Portillo (2000-2004)and Oscar Berger (2004-2008).

Portillo was accused of having stolen approximately $15-16 million dollars from the Defense Ministry in 2001. Former Defense Minister Eduardo Arevalo and former Finance Minister Manuel Maza were also accused of corruption. Portillo was found not guilty earlier this year. The US also accused Portillo of embezzling $3.9 million from the Defense Ministry and stealing at least another $1.5 million in donations from Taiwan that were intended to buy books for school libraries.

While Otto Perez and others have accused Colom of using state resources to benefit UNE and then LIDER, which might be illegal, one doesn't get the impression that Colom was stealing millions from the military and school kids. If the Perez administration finds that Colom and the rest of his administration were corrupt, I'll take it back.

During the Berger administration, there seems to be a good deal of evidence that death squads were operating out of various government agencies. Alejandro Giammattei, the country's former prison director, was accused of participating in the murders of seven inmates during a 2007 uprising at Pavon prison and the alleged execution of three inmates who escaped from the “El Infiernito” prison in 2005.

Giammattei, former Interior Minister Carlos Vielmann, ex-police chief Erwin Sperisen, and sixteen other people are alleged to have belonged to a criminal organization that carried out executions (social cleansing) both inside and outside the country's prisons. While Portillo, Giammattei, Vielmann and Sperisen have so far avoided jail, it is just as important for Guatemala that they are not in positions of power today. Failing to bring these four to justice is a failure on the part of Colom, CICIG, and the Guatemalan justice system. However, having them out of government is a victory for Guatemala.

In December 2010, a Guatemala court sentenced eight Guatemalans for their roles in killing three Salvadoran members of PARLACEN in February 2007. In May 2008, CICIG's Carlos Castresana estimated that approximately 25 percent of the country's murders were of the extrajudicial killing kind. While I doubt that extrajudicial executions by members of the National Civilian Police have ended, they do seem to occur much less frequently under Colom than under Portillo and Berger. If the Perez administration finds that Colom and the rest of his administration were carrying out extrajudicial executions from the presidential palace, I'll take it back as well. Send him and the rest to jail.

Finally, Guatemala was rocked by Rodrigo Rosenberg's May 2009 murder and his beyond the grave accusation against President Colom. Thousands of people took to the streets demanding that he resign and that Congress lift his immunity from prosecution. Those were pretty stressful times for the government and the country. Carlos Castresana and CICIG eventually found that Rosenberg orchestrated his own suicide. Rosenberg's suicide accomplices were found guilty earlier this year as were those who killed the Musas, those who sent Rosenberg down his doomed path.

In some ways, Colom never recovered from the Rosenberg murder. He had already been dealing with a congress and oligarchy with little interest in supporting his proposals. Appointing Conrado Reyes as Attorney General in 2010 and then the circus surrounding UNE's presidential candidate didn't help. Nor did the decapitations in 2010, the Los Cocos massacre, or Cabral's murder.

I didn't see much hope on the horizon for Guatemala in 2009 and 2010. I thought that it would just muddle through for a awhile. While I remain somewhat pessimistic about the country's near-term prospects, I'm just not as pessimistic as I was a year ago. And these reasons don't even include the declining murder rate from 2009 to 2010 and probably from 2010 to 2011.

However, my opinion might change in the next two months when the former general takes the reins especially if he goes ahead with some of his campaign proposals. I hope that some of his proposals were just the stuff of campaigns, but we shall see.

What President-elect Otto Perez Molina Inherits in Guatemala

2011-11-07T09:20:00.002-05:00

On Sunday, just over 50 percent of registered voters turned out to help former general Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party (PP) defeat Manuel Baldizón of the Renewed, Democratic, Liberty (LIDER), 54 percent to 46 percent with 98 percent of the vote counted.

This year's election campaign was marred by violence (over 30 candidates and campaign-workers killed), the utter disregard of electoral laws (campaign spending and donor transparency, a failure to abide by the official start date) except when it suited them (Sandra Torres' disqualification), outlandish proposals (Baldizón's promise to lead Guatemala to the World Cup), and a one size fits all mano dura solution to crime and insecurity in Guatemala.

The president-elect does in fact confront a difficult situation (El Nuevo Herald, Telesur, NYT). Over 50 percent of the population lives in poverty. The percentage of the population living in poverty is much greater in the countryside and among the indigenous. Even though Honduras and El Salvador are now much more violent, statistically speaking, Guatemala remains one of the most violent countries in the world, especially for women. The country's economy is expected to grow by less than 3 percent this year which is among the region's lowest and that was before the most recent storm damaged infrastructure and crops.

On the other hand, President-elect Perez probably has more going for him than President Alvaro Colom did upon taking office. First, while the country's murder rate remains alarmingly high, it is on a downwards trend. Guatemala [correction] recorded 4,000-4,500 murders during the first nine months of the year and is on pace for 5,500-5,750 in 2011, down from 6,451 in 2009 and 5,960 in 2010.

Colom added about 6,000 police officers during his term. However, after removing over 2,000 or so corrupt police officers, it's only a net of 4,000. To fulfill his promise of putting 10,000 more police on the streets and reaching 35,000, Perez will probably need to add 15,000 while continuing to remove those officers who are corrupt or are abusing their power (~5,000). Increasing the number of police should go a long way towards Perez’s goal of lowering the country’s murder rate by half during his four-year term.

Second, Perez has Claudia Paz y Paz and Helen Mack. Paz y Paz was appointed by President Colom as the country’s first female attorney general and Helen Mack as police reform commissioner. Even though some Guatemalan elites have tried to sabotage their efforts to reform the judicial system and police force, from all indications they have done an exceptional job. While not completely eradicated, extrajudicial killings carried out by the police and security forces appear to have declined significantly.

Guatemala has also made important steps to address its past. President Colom apologized on behalf of the Guatemalan state to former President Jacobo Arbenz's family for its complicity in the 1954 CIA-led coup that removed him from office. Among other things, the state has promised to more accurately depict Arbenz’ accomplishments and faults in schools.

Four former military officials have also been sentenced to over 6,000 years in prison for one of the worst civil war massacres, the killing of over 200 men, women and children at Dos Erres in December 1982. Authorities also arrested several high-ranking officials, including former general Hector Mario Lopez Fuentes, former intelligence chief José Mauricio Rodríguez , and former general and de facto president Oscar Mejia, for their responsibility in the execution of the government’s 1980s scorched earth program.

Finally, the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) has had its mandate extended until 2013. While not perfect, CICIG and its commissioner Francisco Dall'Anese have taken important steps to provide the Guatemalan people and its institutions with the tools necessary to tackle impunity.

While these are some areas where Perez can continue the work of Colom, he also has to do more than Colom did to reform the country’s tax base, to promote transparency and the institutionalization of the government’s social programs, to tackle land inequality and respect for indigenous rights, and to provide long-term human security to the people of the Petén, Alta Verapaz, and the rest of Guatemala.

President Otto Perez Molina

2011-11-06T21:48:00.000-05:00

Prensa Libre

General Perez Leads in Preliminary Tally

2011-11-06T20:22:00.000-05:00

Preliminary returns have Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party in the lead.

Siglo XXI

TPS Extension for Honduras and Nicaragua

2011-11-06T19:40:00.000-05:00

On Friday, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano announced that the Obama administration was extending Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to Honduras and Nicaragua for another 18 months each.

TPS status will now expire on July 5, 2013. Chances are TPS will just be extended again before they expire in 2013, that is, unless the Republicans win in 2012. Then all bets are off.

Some thoughts while we wait

2011-11-06T19:28:00.000-05:00

Guy Adams has Former general set to win Guatemalan presidency for The Independent. Yes, the murder rate doubled from 2006 to 2009, but it's decreased dramatically since that peak year (hopefully).There were 6,451 killed in 2009 and 5,960 2010. Guatemala's on pace for somewhere between 4,000-4,500 in 2011. Time to update the numbers.

Perez's pledges of "expanding the police, moving the army into trouble zones, and building more high-security prisons" is pretty similar to what President Colom has done and probably what any president after him would have done.

Finally, while Perez denies that troops under his command committed any atrocities, I find that hard to believe that neither Perez nor any other military official somehow avoided taking part in human rights violations from 1981-1983. Oh and the fact that he played an important role in helping to end the war in 1996 is not proof that he wasn't involved in any atrocities fifteen years earlier.

Edgar Calderon of AFP has Ex-general favorite as Guatemalans vote in run-off. Calderon mentions that Perez criticized President Colom of using state resources to influence today's vote.

Amid a typically tense electoral climate, Perez accused government officials of handing out vouchers for roofing and food supplies to the poor in exchange for their votes for Baldizon.

"I am asking the president... to take his hands off this vote, and stop using Guatemalans' money to try to buy votes in favor of a candidate," said the white-haired ex-general, who long ago traded his military fatigues for civilian garb.

The allegations are probably true. I can understand why he wants to prevent Perez from winning but that doesn't make it right. And there are reports that the PP and LIDER were buying votes throughout the country, particularly in Solola. The PP was allegedly giving out food for votes in Totonicapan.

Elinor Comlay and Mike McDonald have more or less the same stories for Reuters in

Right-wing retired general favorite in Guatemala vote.

I'm still having trouble understanding what the human rights procurator recently said in that the 2011 election cycle has been the "most violent" in recent history with 43 dead in campaign-related killings. They are working off a number of 32 for 2007. A CRS Report for (US) Congress had 56 dead in 2007 and an EU report over 50. Have we all been exaggerating the violence in 2007?

Well, the polls are now closed and the counting has begun. Some violence, allegations of vote buying, and a higher level of abstention as expected.

Weekend Elections

2011-11-03T10:12:00.000-04:00

Prensa Libre has its final poll for Sunday's presidential elections in Guatemala. According to the poll carried out October 26 to 28, Otto Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party leads 58.5% to 41.5% over Manuel Baldizon of LIDER. When you factor in blank and null votes (5.7%), Perez leads 54.6% to 38.7%.

It's pretty certain that the former general is going to win this weekend. However, Perez won three out of four November polls back in 2007 before he was ultimately defeated by Alvaro Colom. Obviously, this election is different from that one - Perez is more of a well-known commodity, the choice back then was the right vs. center/center-left, mano dura vs. a more comprehensive approach to violence.

While we can't know for sure how the victor is going to govern, I do worry about their plans to pursue more mano dura policies towards gangs and cartels. It's not really my area of expertise, but those policies didn't really work out to well (yet?) in Honduras, El Salvador, and Mexico. Each country's murder rate increased after the implementation of mano dura policies.

In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega is poised to win a first round victory. Boz has some thoughts on the elections as does Tim Rogers. While Ortega and the FSLN get pretty low marks for democracy and the rule of law, the economy is growing, poverty is declining, and the streets of Managua and the rest of the country are much safer than those of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. While I can't say that Ortega has been a force for democracy in the country (and might be bad in the medium- to long-term), I can understand why he is favored to win.

Honestly, I don't "care" who wins this weekend's elections. I don't care if it is Perez or Baldizon, Ortega or Gadea, or the FMLN or ARENA in March. It's more important to me that whoever wins governs in the best interests of the Guatemalan, Nicaraguan, and Salvadoran people.

The International Crisis Group on Guatemala

2011-11-02T17:25:00.000-04:00

Kimberly Abbott has a podcast with Mark Schneider about drug-related violence and corruption in Guatemala up at the Huffington Post. Mark is the International Crisis Group's Senior Vice President and Special Advisor to Latin America. It's well worth a listen as I think that he strikes the right tone with Guatemala.

I'm sorry for the light posting. I've been busy finishing up my tenure application and am leaving for Providence on Thursday.

New Book on Central America

2011-11-02T00:01:00.000-04:00

Elana Zilberg, an Associate Professor in the Communication Department at the University of California San Diego has a new book on Space of Detention: The Making of a Transnational Gang Crisis between Los Angeles and El Salvador that looks interesting.

Here's the book's description.

Space of Detention is a powerful ethnographic account and spatial analysis of the “transnational gang crisis” between the United States and El Salvador. Elana Zilberg seeks to understand how this phenomenon became an issue of central concern for national and regional security, and how La Mara Salvatrucha, a gang founded by Salvadoran immigrants in Los Angeles, came to symbolize the “gang crime–terrorism continuum.” She follows Salvadoran immigrants raised in Los Angeles, who identify as—or are alleged to be—gang members and who are deported back to El Salvador after their incarceration in the United States.

Analyzing zero-tolerance gang-abatement strategies in both countries, Zilberg shows that these measures help to produce the very transnational violence and undocumented migration that they are intended to suppress. She argues that the contemporary fixation with Latino immigrant and Salvadoran street gangs, while in part a product of media hype, must also be understood in relation to the longer history of U.S. involvement in Central America, the processes of neoliberalism and globalization, and the intersection of immigration, criminal, and antiterrorist law. These forces combine to produce what Zilberg terms “neoliberal securityscapes.”

Mejia too sick to stand trial

2011-10-31T14:14:00.000-04:00

The National Forensic Science Institute (INACIF) has found that Former President Oscar Mejia (1983-1986) is too sick to stand to stand trial on charges of genocide. For now he will remain at a military hospital until his health either improves or worsens.

Supporters seek sainthood for Father Stanley Rother

2011-10-31T09:10:00.000-04:00

Those of us in the United States are generally familiar with the persecution of the Catholic Church during El Salvador's civil war. We're familiar with Archbishop Oscar Romero, Rutilio Grande, the U.S. churchwomen, and the UCA martyrs. Of course, they're not the only ones to have been murdered.

In Guatemala, the Catholic Church was also heavily persecuted. Bishop Juan Gerardi was killed in 1998 shortly after delivering the results of the Catholic Church's investigation into wartime atrocities. Brother James Miller was killed by the military in 1982. However, several other priests, nuns, and lay people were killed during the conflict.

One such priest is Father Stanley Rother of Oklahoma. Father Rother was sent to Guatemala in 1968 to serve the Tzutujil people. By 1975, Rother was the only member of the clergy remaining at the Church's mission. Rother was shot in the church rectory on July 28, 1981. Rother was one of ten priests killed in 1981. The committee for the cause of canonization is currently investigating whether Rother's life and death merit his recognition as a saint.

Journeyman Pictures has a 25-minute video on Father Rother's life and death.

If Father Rother is canonized, he will become the first US born male saint.

El Salvador Links

2011-10-29T07:30:00.000-04:00

Dean Brackley's obituary in the NYT

Emily Achtenberg has a report on A Mining Ban in El Salvador? at Upside Down World that was originally publiched in NACLA.

El Salvadorans are the largest immigrant group on Long Island having increased in numbers 27% to nearly 56,000 between 2000 and 2009.

The Black Box has the world's most violent countries in table form. El Salvador is number 2 behind Honduras.

Finally, Tim links to a video from President Bill Clinton asking you to help the people of Central America following the terrible flooding..