tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-89295130191812407652024-01-18T16:27:25.616-05:00Central American PoliticsMike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.comBlogger2923125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-78251472633660704532019-08-21T09:02:00.000-04:002019-08-21T09:02:09.711-04:00Will Guatemala’s Incoming President Curb Migration to the US?I have an op-ed at <a href="https://theglobepost.com/2019/08/20/giammattei-guatemala-migration/">The Globe Post</a> that looks at what we can expect from the Giammattei administration in Guatemala.<br />
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Giammattei will also have to contend with how weak the state has become in the last four years. Morales disobeyed Constitutional Court’s rulings, oversaw a remilitarization of the police and the replacement of its professionals, and undermined the free press and access to information. In another concerning move, the attorney general does not appear to have any interest in taking advantage of the expertise of those Guatemalans who had worked with CICIG for the last several years.</blockquote>
Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-41248643376550040862019-08-13T09:56:00.002-04:002019-08-13T10:03:16.128-04:00Giammatte: The fourth time's a charmUnfortunately, the evidence would seem to indicate that Alejandro Giammattei’s presidency will be much like that of his predecessor, Jimmy Morales. In case you are interested in some of my thoughts from Sunday's election in Guatemala, you can read what I had to say in these recent news stories.<div>
<br /><a href="https://www.apnews.com/709c35168632477dbfa36db371aaba87">Guatemalans worry about graft after Giammattei wins election</a>. Associated Press. Sonia Perez (August 12).<br /><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzk_9ndoTVY&feature=youtu.be">Michael Allison on Guatemala's economic outlook with incoming president</a>. CGTN America. Roee Ruttenberg (August 12).<br /><br /><a href="https://cnstopstories.com/2019/08/12/guatemalas-new-president-faces-u-s-challenges-on-migration/">Guatemala’s new president faces U.S. challenges on migration</a>. Catholic News Service. David Agren (August 12).<br /><br /><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/guatemala-awaits-presidential-election-results/2019/08/11/f8d70034-bc3a-11e9-a8b0-7ed8a0d5dc5d_story.html">Guatemala elects right-wing president amid dismal turnout</a>. Washington Post. Sandra Cuffe (August 12).</div>
Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-32781102124639800772019-07-03T22:44:00.000-04:002019-07-03T22:44:04.506-04:00Hiatus<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Sorry about the lack of posts for the last several months. I've been busy with teaching and chair responsibilities, hosting the <a href="http://www.scranton.edu/juhan" target="_blank">Jesuit Universities Humanitarian Action Network</a> (JUHAN) Conference, and providing expert witness testimony for Salvadoran and Guatemala clients. I hope to get back to the blog in the fall but we will see what happens. Anyway, I am off to Guatemala on Sunday to attend the <a href="https://cdn.vanderbilt.edu/vu-wp0/wp-content/uploads/sites/215/2010/11/03205758/2019-GSN-Program.pdf" target="_blank">Guatemala Scholars Network</a> conference in Antigua. Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-44209372524518765312019-02-11T08:08:00.003-05:002019-02-11T08:08:51.324-05:00The enigmatic Nayib BukeleI spoke with CNN about Nayib Bukele's recently <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/09/americas/el-salvador-president-bukele-profile-intl/index.html">election</a> in El Salvador. Most of what I said can be heard in the SECOLAS <a href="http://centralamericanpolitics.blogspot.com/2019/02/and-next-president-of-el-salvador.html">podcast</a> recorded last week.<br />
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"Bukele's considered a populist, an outsider candidate who ran against the system. He says that he comes from the left, but he had to join a political party of the right to run."</blockquote>
There's an effort to try to place Bukele in the overall context of Latin America. The two terms most frequently used to describe him seem to be "outsider" and "independent." He is a two-term mayor, including one term as mayor of the capital for the FMLN. He was expelled from the FMLN and then had to look for an electoral vehicle to allow him to campaign and win in 2019. His election to the presidency didn't come out of the blue but it was difficult to guess the eventual path.<br />
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While he headed the GANA ticket, Bukele has no interest in representing GANA. He has his own <i>Nuevas Ideas</i> party to build. At the same time, GANA does not appear to have any interest in making Bukele their own either. Both parties say that they did not engage in any quid pro quo prior to or during the campaign. However, GANA's Will <a href="https://www.laprensagrafica.com/elsalvador/Salgado-dijo-que-su-trato-con-Bukele-no-fue-para-ser-ministro-20190204-0361.html">Salgado</a> thinks that he and Bukele <a href="https://elfaro.net/es/201902/ef_radio/22988/bukele-tiene-que-renunciar-a-gana-para-quedarse-con-nuevas-ideas.htm">agreed</a> that GANA and Nuevas Ideas would form a coalition to support him in the 2021 San Miguel mayoral elections.<br />
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It is unclear whether any other side deals were made and too early to tell what the two parties' relationship might look like the next two years before the mayoral and legislative elections. Bukele doesn't have much legislative support and even if he did work with GANA legislators it wouldn't be enough. Fortunately for Bukele, his overwhelming victory might make the FMLN and/or ARENA more likely to work with him so as to build some momentum before 2021. At this point, obstructing Bukele's legislative agenda doesn't appear to have much upside.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-80090788301708630102019-02-06T11:03:00.000-05:002019-02-06T11:03:22.662-05:00And the next president of El Salvador is....Nayib Bukele!I spoke with Steven Hyland and Carlos Dimas yesterday about this past weekend's election in El Salvador. Carlos and Stephen host a podcast for the <i>Southeastern Council of Latin American Studies</i>.<br />
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In this episode, professor of political science Michael Allison discusses the February 3, 2019 presidential election in El Salvador. With Nayib Bukele from the GANA party emerging as the victor, Bukele is the first candidate since the end of the Civil War not from the two dominant political parties. Allison offers what this election means for not only El Salvador and Latin America, but the Americas as a whole. </blockquote>
You can listen to our discussion <a href="http://secolas.org/media/historias-36-mike-allison-on-the-elections-in-el-salvador/">here</a>.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-89520542744309123592019-01-23T14:21:00.002-05:002019-01-23T14:21:17.313-05:00Central American migrants lead US labor reformsElizabeth Oglesby has some fascinating stories on the leadership of Central American migrants in several labor initiatives in the United States in a recent Conversation article with <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-central-american-migrants-helped-revive-the-us-labor-movement-109398">How Central American migrants helped revive the US labor movement</a>.<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">
In the United States’ heated national debate about immigration, two views predominate about Central American migrants: President Donald Trump portrays them as a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/11/26/president-trump-migrant-caravan-criminals/2112846002/">national security threat</a>, while others respond that they are <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-there-a-crisis-at-the-us-mexico-border-6-essential-reads-109547">refugees from violence</a>.</blockquote>
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Little is said about the substantial contributions that Central Americans have made to U.S. society over the past 30 years.</blockquote>
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For one, Guatemalan and Salvadoran immigrants have helped expand the U.S. labor movement, organizing far-reaching workers rights’ campaigns in migrant-dominated industries that mainstream unions had thought to be untouchable.</blockquote>
Check it out.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-54895478042147128382019-01-20T09:50:00.002-05:002019-01-21T09:56:33.476-05:00Guatemala threatens US and UN credibilityI published some commentary on what is going on in Central America recently in the Hill with <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/425916-losing-the-fight-against-corruption-and-narco-trafficking-in-guatemala">Losing the fight against corruption and narco-trafficking in Guatemala</a>. Protests are helping but without a clear statement from the US it is difficult to see the Morales government softening its stance against CICIG. Unfortunately, nothing that the Morales government has said or done leads one to believe that their only concern is with Velasquez or CICIG. They've sought to dismantle the PNC leadership and Constitutional Court. <br />
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Unfortunately, my submission was revised in a way that I did not support. I tried to hold off sharing the op-ed until some revisions were made to it. I didn't learn of these revisions until after the article went live. Because the more problematic revisions were done by a university consultant and not Hill editors, the Hill hasn't been enthusiastic about making the revision. They did change the error on their part. I've asked for additional changes to be made or for the article to be taken down. (Update: On Sunday afternoon, the most problematic paragraph was deleted.)<br />
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Here is what is posted, which is not what happened and not what I wrote.<br />
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In August, in a move to intimidate the American ambassador who supports CICIG, Morales stated that U.S.-donated jeeps should not be used to drive the streets of the capitol, but rather “for the purpose of combatting criminal activity and narcotics trafficking, with a focus on Guatemala’s borders.”</blockquote>
And here is what I originally submitted.<br />
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Finally, Guatemala also sought to intimidate the United States in August when several U.S.-donated jeeps were seen near the U.S. Embassy in Guatemala City when President Morales announced that CICIG’s mandate would not be renewed. According to the Embassy, these jeeps were to be used “for the purpose of combatting criminal activity and narcotics trafficking, with a focus on Guatemala’s borders.” They should not have been driving the streets of the capital. The move was widely <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/opinion/trump-corruption-guatemala.html">perceived</a> as a move to “intimidate the American ambassador, who publicly supports Cicig.” </blockquote>
The paragraph needed some revision but the revisions made changed the meaning of Morales' actions. There was also some heavy editing of the following paragraph. This is what is published.<br />
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But the most important people to consider regarding the future of CICIG is the Guatemalan people. Guatemala is one of the hemisphere’s poorer countries, with alarming numbers of indigenous and rural people living in extreme poverty.</blockquote>
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Guatemalans have consistently supported CICIG. Until relatively recently, so has the United States.</blockquote>
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Our government and the international community failed to defend democracy when it came under attack in Honduras and Nicaragua. The people of those two countries continue to suffer the consequences. It is not too late, however, to prevent the reversal of what progress has been made with the assistance of CICIG in Guatemala.</blockquote>
And here is what I wrote.<br />
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But the most important people to consider regarding the future of CICIG is the Guatemalan people. Guatemala is one of the hemisphere’s poorer countries, with alarming numbers of Indigenous and rural people living in extreme poverty. While the country’s murder rate decreased in 2018, insecurity continues to threaten the day to day existence of too many. Poor economic and security conditions have caused tens of thousands of Guatemalans, many of whom are families and unaccompanied minors, to flee for the United States. One of the bright spots, however, has been CICIG. After several years of attacks by Morales and important members of the political and economic elite to discredit CICIG, Guatemalans continue to demonstrate strong <a href="https://nomada.gt/pais/actualidad/jimmy-cicig-o-a-quien-prefieren-los-guatemaltecos-segun-encuesta-pagada-por-luis-von-ahn">support</a> for the institution. Every time that President Morales has attacked CICIG, the Guatemalan people and Constitutional Court have come to its defense. Until relatively recently, so has the United States.</blockquote>
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The United States and international community failed to successfully defend democracy when it came under attack in Honduras and Nicaragua. The people of those two countries continue to suffer the consequences. It is not too late, however, to prevent the reversal of what progress has been made with the assistance of CICIG in Guatemala. </blockquote>
Anyway, it still online <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/425916-losing-the-fight-against-corruption-and-narco-trafficking-in-guatemala">here</a>.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-22955137306527807852019-01-09T11:43:00.002-05:002019-01-09T11:43:25.512-05:00Constitutional Court blocks CICIG expulsion<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiPW-lCa8jmaPlkPhruQVOGl84RpEdd76l2Od4M4X3_Ck-j3I6-PJ9TrK_FeSQobjI04SmI_Nc9QrEvDLdkf2RLE2N-tBYkaG81V8o41TCRA3cnsT6SJoJ0bxN8oEVDmYt3d6DAB2HfR4U/s1600/Guatemala+courts.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="415" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiPW-lCa8jmaPlkPhruQVOGl84RpEdd76l2Od4M4X3_Ck-j3I6-PJ9TrK_FeSQobjI04SmI_Nc9QrEvDLdkf2RLE2N-tBYkaG81V8o41TCRA3cnsT6SJoJ0bxN8oEVDmYt3d6DAB2HfR4U/s320/Guatemala+courts.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
On Monday, President Morales and his administration announced that they were ending the CICIG experiment immediately, instead of September of this year. Morales is trying to shut down an institution that is investigating him, his family, and party. There is no reason to believe that Morales is acting out of anything but self-interest. I spoke with the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/08/guatemalan-president-condemned-after-ejecting-un-anti-corruption-group">Guardian</a> yesterday about what is going on.<br />
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Earlier this morning, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46813367">Constitutional Court</a> blocked Morales' order. Meanwhile, the international community released a lukewarm <a href="https://www.facebook.com/UnionEuropeaEnGuatemala/posts/1443312665799473">message</a> defending democracy, the rule of law, and checks and balances.<br />
<br />Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-2382749610661446172018-12-29T12:43:00.000-05:002018-12-29T12:43:09.360-05:00Guatemalan deaths met with relative silence by their governmentWhile two young Guatemalans have recently died in US Border Patrol custody, the Guatemalan government has remained mostly quiet. The question is why? Elisabeth Malkin at the <i>New York Times</i> tries to get at the answer in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/28/world/americas/guatemala.html">Guatemala Cautious on Young Migrants’ Deaths, Wary of Angering U.S.</a> There's really a two-part answer.<br />
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First, the Morales government does not want to further antagonize the United States. In words and deeds, it has successfully lobbied the Trump administration to withdraw its support for the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG). Day after day, the Morales administration has attacked one of the region's most <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/397075-guatemala-asks-president-trump-to-weaken-anti-corruption-commission">successful initiatives</a> to battle corruption and impunity. The Guatemalan government recently sought to remove eleven <a href="https://www.cicig.org/press-release-2018/information-about-the-situation-of-11-international-officials/?lang=en">CICIG</a> officials and two of their relatives from the country. The US has remained silent.<br />
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Similarly, the Guatemalan government might not want to jeopardize the lives of one million plus of their compatriots in the US. The Guatemalan people and government rely upon the billions of dollars they return to the country in remittances each year.<br />
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“We have a de facto apartheid society,” said Anita Isaacs, a Guatemala scholar at Haverford College. “This country continues to be almost as racist as it has been historically.”</blockquote>
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The result is that the death of an indigenous child barely registers, she said: “These lives are worth less, and these people are fundamentally invisible.”</blockquote>
Second, the Guatemalan government's weak response to the deaths of two of their citizens in the US is a reflection of the state's discrimination against the country's indigenous people. Anita's quote captures that sentiment. Felipe was from a Chuj-speaking family while Jakelin was from a Q’eqchi’-speaking family.<br />
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Whatever the reason, President Trump has not held back against Guatemala in his criticism of the region's leaders. It's unclear how much longer the US government will be able to hold out against the president's Twitter <a href="https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/migrantes/trump-critica-guatemala-honduras-el-salvador-mexico">threats</a>.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-45692315439311476032018-12-28T08:41:00.002-05:002018-12-28T08:41:34.782-05:00I would rather pursue policies that brings the US and region closer together.<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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And even if US built a wall, it also needs to build a road to parallel the wall. Might also need additional agents and outposts stationed along the wall and road to apprehend those crossing. Also going to need to maintain roads and facilities on US side. Colossal waste. <a href="https://t.co/EsJSxTNcem">https://t.co/EsJSxTNcem</a></div>
— Mike Allison (@CentAmPolMike) <a href="https://twitter.com/CentAmPolMike/status/1078272523769446400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 27, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Initially, I thought that President Trump's call for a border wall could simply be interpreted as a call for greater border security. However, it doesn't really look like that is the case. Sure, he wants more border patrol agents but it is hard to link them to security either because, in terms of apprehensions, the ones we have are not very busy.</div>
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Even with apprehensions at low levels, the President wants to increase the number of agents. For several years now, however, the US has had a very difficult time maintaining current staffing levels, let alone increasing them. After winning a $297 million contract, Accenture has been able to fill two of 5,000 border patrol <a href="https://ktla.com/2018/12/12/firm-awarded-297m-government-contract-to-recruit-5000-border-agents-has-hired-only-two/">positions</a> they were hired for. Fortunately, they have only received a few million dollars so far. CBP seems to have already lowered its standards and still can't hire what the president wants.</div>
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And then there is the comic that started this post. President Trump wants a wall or fence or something he can call a wall. He might or might not want it to cross the entire 2,000 mile border. However, it's not as simple as building a wall. For the wall to be effective, the US would need to extend roads for the length of the wall. That way agents would be able to patrol the wall in order to apprehend those going over, or under, it. Such an initiative would probably require a great deal more agents than we already have. You would probably need to establish outposts as well, perhaps where agents could stay for a few days. Plus, it's not as if you just build the wall and walk away. The wall and roads would require significant resources each year to maintain.</div>
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Much of the border land is owned by US citizens and tribes. Either it'll be very expensive to purchase the land or those who own it have no interest in selling it. Some of the ranchers I've met with outside Nogales moved out to the border area decades ago to get away from the federal government. They are not really interested in more government now.</div>
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When reporters looked at this issue around the 2016 election, the company best positioned to provide supplies for the wall would be CEMEX, which probably wouldn't go over too well with President Trump or the Mexican people.</div>
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Then there are the environmental costs related to the material used to build and maintain the wall. Migratory patterns would be disrupted and wildlife would suffer. In general, people living along the border don't want additional walls. </div>
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I honestly don't get why President Trump wants to make enemies of our neighbors and allies. His misunderstanding of the causes and consequences of migration are really powerful. For me, I would <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/07/should-us-deport-unaccompanied--201471562726150991.html">rather</a> pursue policies that bring the US and region closer together. That, however, will have to wait until another administration takes office in the White House.</div>
Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-48004459156014264872018-12-26T09:58:00.002-05:002018-12-26T09:58:43.156-05:00Oh no, not another gangs and the church articleMy typical response is oh no, not another gangs and the Church article from El Salvador. However, Danny Gold put together a really good article on <a href="http://pulitzercenter.org/reporting/redemption-ms-13">The Redemption of MS-13</a> for The Pulitzer Center. The title is misleading as it focuses on the relatively small number of Salvadoran gang members who have successfully desisted from gangs, rather than redemption of the organization itself. The article is also very similar to Danielle Mackey's <a href="https://theintercept.com/2018/11/17/el-salvador-barrio-18-ms-13-leave-gang/">A Boundless Battlefield</a> for the <i>Intercept</i>.<br />
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One of the few ways that gang members desist from gangs is through the Church. However, it is not always clear what getting out means, more specifically whether getting out is permanent. One can be called back to duty if gang leaders wish it to be so. There is also the fact that, for a variety of reasons, one is still at risk of torture or death from one's own gang, other gangs, police and security forces, and clandestine groups. Once a gang member, always a gang member. Life is hard for Salvadorans in general, even more so for former gang members often shunned by families, employers, the state, and society at large.<br />
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For an academic look inside Salvadoran gangs I highly recommend recent articles from Jonathan Rosen and Jose Miguel Cruz on <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0306624X18785517">Overcoming Stigma and Discrimination: Challenges for Reinsertion of Gang Members in Developing Countries</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01639625.2018.1519130">Rethinking the Mechanisms of Gang Desistance in a Developing Country</a>. Greg Weeks also interviewed Jonathan recently for his <a href="https://pages.uncc.edu/gregory-weeks/2018/12/19/episode-61-exiting-gangs-in-el-salvador/">podcast</a>.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-10783631503405348952018-12-18T16:32:00.000-05:002018-12-18T16:32:27.316-05:00Mexico considering $30 billion Central American investment to stop migrant crisis — US should, tooI have an op-ed with <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/421930-mexico-considering-30-billion-central-american-investment-to-stop-migrant">The Hill</a> arguing that the US should provide greater attention and resources to the humanitarian crisis in Central America.<br />
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President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is considering a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/12/10/mexico-pump-30-billion-into-central-america-halt-migrant-caravan-donald-trump-lopez-obrador/2272077002/">plan</a> to invest $30 billion over the next five years to promote development in Central America’s Northern Triangle of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. The plan’s details are still unsettled but investing in Central America, and even southern Mexico, to reduce the number of people who feel that they have no choice but to leave the region is worth the investment. </blockquote>
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Central America's political and economic development needs to be more of a priority. This plan might not address the needs of the millions of people who have already left and are in transit somewhere in Mexico or awaiting asylum hearings in the United States, which should also be addressed. A few <a href="http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2014/07/central-america-deserves-at-least-1.html">million</a> dollars here and there with little follow-through has not cut it. The United States should work with its Mexican and Central American partners to address the immediate and long-term needs of those living amidst a humanitarian crises.</blockquote>
Given the cast of characters now occupying the highest elected office in the United States, Mexico, and Central America's Northern Triangle, I'm skeptical about a truly transformative initiative. However, several opportunities for cooperation on mutually beneficial policies do exist.<br />
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You can read my thoughts <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/421930-mexico-considering-30-billion-central-american-investment-to-stop-migrant">here</a>. </div>
Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-7105387437875395242018-12-14T12:23:00.001-05:002018-12-14T12:23:18.653-05:00GANA's Nayib Bukele favored to win Salvadoran presidential election<div style="text-align: center;">
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Si las elecciones fueran el próximo domingo, ¿por cuál partido o coalición votaría usted? En perspectiva <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/encuestaUCA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#encuestaUCA</a> <a href="https://t.co/VEMya0u8rg">pic.twitter.com/VEMya0u8rg</a></div>
— UCA El Salvador (@UCA_ES) <a href="https://twitter.com/UCA_ES/status/1073239221094232064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 13, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Less than two months before El Salvador's February presidential elections, GANA's Nayib Bukele remains the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-el-salvador-politics-poll/el-salvador-populist-holds-lead-weeks-ahead-of-presidential-vote-idUSKBN1OC2OG">favorite</a>. While Bukele holds what appears to be a commanding lead, he still needs to surpass 50 percent to avoid a runoff. Given what happened between the first and second rounds in 2014, I imagine Bukele will really want to wrap things up in February.<br />
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It's unclear what institutional support a president Bukele will have and, in some ways, his popular support looks soft as well. Of those who intend to vote GANA, 54 percent answered that Bukele had their vote simply to give someone else a chance / for a change. Salvadorans don't have a great deal of faith in any candidate to solve the problems of the day.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-7527895572291127422018-12-11T08:38:00.002-05:002018-12-11T08:38:35.854-05:00The United States accepts no responsibility for those fleeing for their lives.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/11/13/us/politics/00elsalvador15/merlin_143629587_b871e865-9cdd-4046-b41c-8572213c26cc-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="800" height="213" src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/11/13/us/politics/00elsalvador15/merlin_143629587_b871e865-9cdd-4046-b41c-8572213c26cc-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Meridith Kohut for The New York Times</td></tr>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“If the police don’t eradicate crime in El Salvador, and the United States cuts the funding, the gangs will take over my country — even more than they currently do,” he said. “More people would try to escape, running away from crime, to save their lives.”</blockquote>
Ali Watkins and Meridith Kohut explore the difficult relationship shared by the United States and El Salvador in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/10/us/el-salvador-ms-13.html">A Conflicted War: MS-13, Trump and America’s Stake in El Salvador’s Security</a> for the <i>New York Times</i>. After having just finished <a href="http://centralamericanpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-salvador-option.html">The Salvador Option</a>, it's awful to see so many parallels with the 1980s.<br />
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The United States is deeply involved in helping to improve El Salvador's capacity to tackle gang violence. It is training police, soldiers, prosecutors, and judges. It is funding forensics labs and prisons. It is pushing community policing efforts. The homicide rate has decreased but it is difficult to assess the impact of the United States' contributions to Salvadoran security.<br />
<br />
Security units with whom the United States has worked continue to commit human rights abuses. Some will say because of US training while others will say in spite of its training. At times, these units effectively carry out missions based upon US training "But at other times, they struggled to complete assignments and were openly skeptical of their own system." Thirty-seven years to the day after the El Mozote massacre, the parallels to the Atlacatl Battalion are hard to miss. The United States provided basic training to El Salvador's elite unit in 1981 but they threw what they had learned out the window and then reverted to what cruelty they had been committing prior to US training.<br />
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Like the 1980s, the US government in Washington and in San Salvador are at odds with each other. The US Ambassador to El Salvador says that officials in San Salvador cannot be distracted by what the President says. That is no way to run the foreign service.<br />
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The president has claimed that he is deporting Salvadoran migrants at a record pace, that asylum-seekers are flooding American borders and that the Salvadoran government is not doing anything to help. But according to data the State Department presented this year to Salvadoran leaders, the number of citizens fleeing and the number getting deported back have decreased significantly.</blockquote>
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Jean Elizabeth Manes, the United States ambassador to El Salvador, said American officials there aren’t distracted by Mr. Trump’s remarks. “We stay focused on what the end goal is,” she said.</blockquote>
The mixed messages can be dangerous. President Trump is warning that criminals are overrunning the US southern border and that it might be permissible to shoot them. In some ways, he is following El Salvador's lead where its political leaders have given the impression that it is permissible to shoot first and ask questions later, if at all. Like the 1980s, Salvadorans are fleeing a war in which the US is deeply involved. However, the United States accepts no responsibility for those fleeing for their lives.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-35744410161257792392018-12-10T08:42:00.001-05:002018-12-10T08:42:34.512-05:00The Salvador Option<a href="https://assets.cambridge.org/97813165/00644/cover/9781316500644.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="272" data-original-width="180" src="https://assets.cambridge.org/97813165/00644/cover/9781316500644.jpg" /></a>I highly recommend Russell Crandall's <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/salvador-option/7291F01144EA9790D3B1BE49400248B0">The Salvador Option: The United States in El Salvador, 1977-1992</a>. It provides a terrific overview of U.S. policy towards the small country of Central America during the second half of the Cold War. Fortunately, Crandall lays out a variety of takes on the causes, conduct, and consequences of the war from a variety of he U.S., Salvadoran, regional, and global perspectives.<br />
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Nearly three decades after the war's end, we are still trying to make sense of it all. Crandall does a very good job of moving us forward. We could still know more, however, especially how other actors responded to US actions. We know that ARENA was established because the Salvadoran right felt that they could not trust the United States, Duarte, and the military to protect their interests. The United States prevented D'Aubuisson from becoming interim president in 1982 and then president in 1984. The U.S. also prevented D'Aubuisson from entering the country. However, one of D'Aubuisson's biggest supporters in the U.S. was Senator Jesse Helms. Helms seemed to have had fewer problems engaging with the extreme Salvadoran right. The United States didn't back ARENA until the moderate Duarte had lost, moderate leaders of ARENA emerged, and the party won the 1989 elections. I still don't think that we know what we need to know about the U.S. relations with ARENA.<br />
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There's also some interesting history to learn about the U.S. government and the FMLN. It would be really interesting to focus on what contacts they maintained through the war. Some of these contacts were through the FDR, while others might have been more direct. Crandall discussed some of those contacts in 1990 and 1991. The FMLN seemed to have a pretty good working relationship with the U.S. whom they trusted more than the Salvadoran government and military. I interviewed Facundo Guardado twenty years ago and he more or less said that each commander had a CIA contact with whom they could connect if they were having problems during and shortly after the peace process. I didn't follow up.<br />
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Finally, we still don't (and probably never will) have the covert story of the U.S. role in El Salvador. In some capacity, U.S. soldiers seemed to have been in the field for most of the war. The CIA seemed to have had a different relationship with the Salvadoran right and various death squads than did the U.S. Embassy. I think that we are missing some of the more negative U.S. involvement because we have to rely heavily on what the U.S. government has released. I don't have the book in front of me but Mark Mazzettti has some of that history in <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Way-Knife-Secret-Army-Earth/dp/014312501X">The Way of the Knife: The CIA, a Secret Army, and a War at the Ends of the Earth</a>. CIA operatives employed during the 1980s in Central America fell out of favor after the end of the Cold War when they were no longer needed. However, as you can imagine, they were pressed back into service after the 9/11 attacks. <br />
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Crandall provides some important details about the involvement of the Nicaraguans, Cubans, and Soviets in El Salvador but we don't yet have detailed access to what they know and did.<br />
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<i>The Salvador Option</i> is a terrific 500-page book well worth your time.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-66113605450666243512018-12-06T09:28:00.004-05:002018-12-06T09:28:49.440-05:00Undocumented population decreases approximately 1.5 million over the last decade<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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A recent <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/11/27/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-total-dips-to-lowest-level-in-a-decade/">Pew Research Report</a> finds that the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States declined once again in 2016. Pew estimates that 10.7 million undocumented immigrants live in the United States, down 1.5 million from its 12.2 million high in 2007.<br />
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While the number of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico continues to decrease, the number from Central America is heading in the opposite direction, obviously consistent with what we have been reading and seeing for the last several years.<br />
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Those who have lived in the United States for ten or more years continue to make up a growing share of all unauthorized migrants - up from 50% in 2010 to 66% in 2016.<br />
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I'm not sure there is much surprising in the report. However, the results will probably be eye-opening to those who don't follow immigration trends that closely and therefore is still worth sharing widely.<br />
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While cruel and counterproductive, United States border security has been one "effective" factor at reducing the undocumented population in the country.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-11422871026346345632018-12-02T09:31:00.000-05:002018-12-02T09:31:02.021-05:00We know that George Bush went to El Salvador to crackdown on death squads butWe know that George Bush went to El Salvador to crackdown on death squads but I don't think that I remember hearing this story before. Writing at the Hill, John Solomon tells about Bush's 1983 visit to El Salvador where he was to deliver a message about the country's use of <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/419272-a-hair-raising-story-of-jungle-heroism-you-probably-never-heard-about">death squads</a>. <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">
The meeting place was chosen carefully by Bush’s advance team to accentuate the message. A few weeks earlier the villa had been the site of a suspected death-squad confrontation, and the walls and carpets were still stained with victims’ blood when Bush aides arrived to scout the location a few days before the meeting.</blockquote>
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“It looked like a meeting had gone terribly wrong and no one survived,” Antonio Benedi, a trusted aide who accompanied Bush on the trip, told me back in 2011 when I worked for Newsweek.</blockquote>
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A paint job was ordered but, otherwise, the site was kept the same. What better place to deliver a message of restraint than a crime scene where none had been exercised?</blockquote>
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Bush began the meeting with a private conference in a back room of the villa with then-Salvadoran President <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1983/12/11/Vice-President-George-Bush-Sunday-stressed-the-need-for/7168439966800/">Álvaro Magaña</a>. Midway through it, some of the military commanders <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=6b8XBgAAQBAJ&pg=PT243&lpg=PT243&dq=bush+met+with+magana&source=bl&ots=rMbOmjHxkm&sig=zk2-Ewe3CDT6F3ulTejoZUTxMUc&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiq_56Ylv_eAhWlSt8KHV9yC0EQ6AEwD3oECAAQAQ#v=onepage&q=bush%20met%20with%20magana&f=false">entered the villa with weapons</a> and a commotion broke out with the Secret Service when the soldiers refused to lay down their arms. Bush asked for quiet.</blockquote>
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When the time came to meet with the military leaders around a conference table, Bush wasted no time making his point. He slammed his fist on the wooden surface, startling some in the room.</blockquote>
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Oliver North told me, years later, that the scene was like a Hollywood movie. The Americans were outnumbered 5 to 1, some of the people at the table were death-squad commanders, and any failure would doom Reagan’s entire strategy in Latin America.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
North remembered Bush’s words exactly: “If the killings don’t stop and you don’t hold elections, we are going to cut off your aid and it will stop you dead in your tracks, and you know what that means,” he quoted Bush as telling the Salvadoran leaders.</blockquote>
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Bush didn’t wait around for a response. He abruptly left, with North leaving behind a handwritten list of death-squad leaders the United States wanted removed from command.</blockquote>
Certain US officials and organizations were not squeamish about working with the country's death squads. However, US policy was to prop up a moderate civilian government led by the PDC's Jose Napoleon Duarte, to keep the Salvadoran right out of power, and to defeat the FMLN. US pressure against Salvadoran death squads seemed to work but it was always fleeting. Murders and atrocities would increase after US pressure dissipated.<br />
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Powerful Salvadorans believed that the US and PDC were going to lose the country to the communists. The US lecturing them about human rights was not something in which they were interested. And they did seem to believe US warnings about cutting off aid about poor human rights conditions. US Democrats wanted to embarrass the Republicans but putting them on the record about supporting a regime with an abysmal human rights record but they didn't want to actually have aid cut off and let El Salvador fall to the communists. The Reagan administration was going to pressure Salvadorans to keep a lid on death squad activities but they were not going to terminate assistance. Winning the Cold War in El Salvador and Central America was too important.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-53454368957888585542018-11-30T08:18:00.000-05:002018-11-30T08:18:05.411-05:00Convictions in the murder of Berta CáceresTwo and one-half years after her murder, a Honduran court convicted seven men of the murder of indigenous environmentalist Berta Isabel Cáceres. The court ruled that the murder was orchestrated by executives of Desa, an Agua Zarca dam company. The Cáceres family welcomed the ruling. From the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/29/berta-caceres-seven-men-convicted-conspiracy-murder-honduras">Guardian</a>.<br />
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“Today there’s no satisfaction, or happiness, but we are glad to see jailed the killers who murdered my mother simply for defending natural resources at a moment when she was defenceless. We don’t want revenge because we are not killers like them, but we demand that the masterminds behind the murder be brought to justice,” said Olivia Zuniga, Cáceres’ eldest daughter.</blockquote>
As <a href="http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2018/11/caceress-murderers-found-guilty.html">Boz</a> notes, in a country where justice is rarely served, the convictions are important step forward - "The limited justice that has occurred in the Caceres case remains the exception, not the rule."<br />
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Those individuals who ordered Berta's murder remain at large and the entire legal process was marred by irregularities. It was only through enormous international pressure that the trial reached a verdict. That pressure is not always there, especially as the United States remains a unrelenting supporter of the Hernandez government.<br />
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In spite of the convictions, "Institutional weakness, corruption, violence, and impunity undermine the overall stability of Honduras. Journalists, political activists, and women are often the victims of violence, and perpetrators are rarely brought to justice." (<a href="https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/honduras">Freedom House</a>)Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-14117959024812628722018-11-29T16:55:00.000-05:002018-11-29T16:55:10.724-05:00Life under gang ruleThe <i>International Crisis Group</i> has a helpful brief on <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/central-america/el-salvador/life-under-gang-rule-el-salvador">Life Under Gang Rule in El Salvador</a> that brings out many of the issues causing people from the Northern Triangle to flee the region. Gang violence is pervasive. Salvadorans avoid talking about gangs in public out of fear that the wrong people will overhear their conversations. Gangs control citizens' every move - where they can live, work, and socialize. And gang members are not just kid on the streets with tattoos.<br />
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Media reports about MS-13 and other maras depict the members bearing archetypal tattoos and speaking in trademark slang. Not all gang members are so easily identifiable. The gangs remain rooted in the streets but have now penetrated every layer of Salvadoran society. Gangs have mutated from youth groups defending neighbourhood turf in the 1980s to hierarchical organisations that coerce, threaten and kill. Many members and sympathisers, particularly from MS-13, become teachers, lawyers, local government officials and even police officers who serve the gang’s interests. Their influence has grown so great that every major political party in El Salvador and Honduras has at some point paid gangs during elections.</blockquote>
Unfortunately, especially for young me, many Salvadorans must fear the police as much as they do the <i>maras.</i>Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-12454989212944411012018-11-27T09:00:00.001-05:002018-11-27T09:02:29.715-05:00Central America has long functioned as a testing ground for American imperial violenceMiles Culpepper has a good article on <a href="https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/central-america-migrant-caravan-trump">The Debt We Owe Central America</a> in <i>Jacobin</i>. <a href="https://history.berkeley.edu/miles-culpepper">Miles</a> is a graduate student in the Department of History at The University of California at Berkeley.<br />
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Central America has long functioned as a testing ground for American imperial violence, a region where policymakers and military officials learn brutal tactics and strategies that they then apply elsewhere in the world.</blockquote>
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But there’s no reason Central America can’t instead be the point of origin for a more humane, democratic foreign policy. The ballooning defense budgets that accompany American imperial projects weaken our ability to build a decent society at home. The violence engendered by these same projects weakens the ability of our sibling republics to the south and around the world to do the same.</blockquote>
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The starting point for an anti-imperialist foreign policy is a simple principle: do no harm. When Central American reform movements emerge to create more egalitarian and democratic societies, Washington needs to get out of their way. When refugees arrive seeking asylum, the US should let them in. And if political violence erupts again, as it did in the 1980s, the US mustn’t side with the military and right-wing elites.</blockquote>
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To create a better world, in which families need not flee their homes in a bid for basic personal security, American policymakers cannot close the United States off from the outside world. Nor should they continue to try to remold the world beyond our borders, like so much loose clay, in order to serve selfish political interests at home.</blockquote>
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The moral imperative is instead to fashion a foreign policy based on the noble ideals of democracy, self-determination, and human rights that have inspired men and women across the Americas for generations.</blockquote>
I tend to be more moderate than those who write for Jacobin. Maybe that's my problem. I would have liked to have read more coverage dedicated to recent US-Central American relations and less to the historical angle but the article's still worth a read. I'm actually thinking about using it as the first assignment for students to read in my spring US-Latin American relations course.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-70921879551959339822018-11-26T15:18:00.003-05:002018-11-26T15:18:24.274-05:00Family affairs in Panama and HondurasUS authorities recently arrested the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-honduras-drugs/honduran-presidents-brother-arrested-in-miami-on-drug-charges-idUSKCN1NT015">brother</a> of Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez. Juan Antonio “Tony” Hernandez was detained Friday on drug trafficking charges.<br />
<br />
Last week, US authorities arrested two of former Panamanian president <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/2-sons-of-former-panama-president-detained-in-us/">Ricardo Martinelli's</a> sons, Ricardo Martinelli Linares and Luis Enrique Martinelli Linares, on immigration charges.The arrests would appear as a precursor to their deportation as the two men are wanted in Panama on corruption charges.<br />
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In order to better mange the movement of people throughout the hemisphere, the US and its partners need to move forward on drug reform and anti-corruption initiatives. Too many of the region's elites are tied up in the multi-billion dollar industry. Reforms are necessary to attack the root causes of violence in the region that are causing thousands to give up and leave.<br />
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As we learned over the weekend, the US does not need any more walls or troops on the border. Our southern border is more secure than ever. We need policies that work the reduce the number of people forced to migrate out of their communities and out of the region.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-75276709985627259352018-11-25T07:59:00.000-05:002018-11-25T08:00:13.499-05:00Brewing humanitarian crisis on the border<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Happy belated Thanksgiving everyone! Like usual, there's a lot going on in Central America and Mexico, and it doesn't appear that the US has a strategy to address the brewing humanitarian crisis. From what I told CNN's <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/americas/migrant-theories-experts-midterms/index.html">Catherine Shoichet</a> a few weeks ago,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
But despite the lingering questions about these large groups forming, Allison said the most important thing to do right now isn't to pinpoint why they're leaving; it's to address the humanitarian crisis that's emerging as they make the trek.</blockquote>
During the early part of their journey out of Honduran, thousands of migrants relied upon the generosity of the Mexican people. They received food, drink, clothes, and transportation. However, it wasn't clear how long nongovernmental support was going to keep up with the needs of the people in transit. Now, thousands of people have reached the US-Mexico border in Tijuana. Thousands more are on their way.<br />
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The Tijuana mayor says that he will not use public resources to help those in need and is instead calling on the United Nations for assistance to address the "<a href="https://www.apnews.com/a1349a11f78b4527bcc6934f133b72c7">humanitarian crisis</a>." After the publicity stunt of reinforcing the Texas border, the US is now reinforcing the California border just in case I guess. The US is also slowing down the processing of migration requests, for those who cross regularly and for those seeking asylum. It's like the US administration is intentionally making a bad situation worse. I can't imagine what will happen if the US and Mexico actually agree on a plan to require people seeking asylum in the US to stay in Mexico while their cases are processed in the US.<br />
<br />
And the exodus from Honduras shows no signs of letting up. <a href="http://fortune.com/2018/11/23/honduras-migrant-caravan-border-violence/">I Live in Honduras, Where People Are in Constant Fear of Being Murdered. It’s No Wonder They Join Caravans.</a> I'd say that the US has little interest in addressing the root causes of the crisis. However, I think the Trump administration and those of us who study the region and migration simply have a different understanding of the root causes.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-82680555963002120422018-11-14T08:13:00.000-05:002018-11-14T08:13:18.997-05:00Working to resolve the crisis in Central AmericaChristine Wade has a terrific take on what is occurring in Central America in the <i>World Politics Review</i> with <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/26734/the-u-s-contributed-to-central-america-s-migrant-crisis-it-must-help-fix-it">The U.S. Contributed to Central America’s Migrant Crisis. It Must Help Fix It</a>. <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">
Finally, the administration should recognize the crisis that exists not on the southern U.S. border, but some 1,500 miles south in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Actually addressing that humanitarian crisis requires improving access to official U.S. ports of entry, restoring the <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/23455/trump-s-restrictions-on-central-americans-seeking-asylum-could-destabilize-the-region">Central American Minors Program</a>—which allowed minors in the Northern Triangle who had parents legally living in the U.S. to apply for asylum from their home countries—and re-evaluating the administration’s policy on gender-based and gang-related violence. Those with legitimate claims for asylum should be able to make them and have them processed expeditiously. </blockquote>
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The United States, across multiple administrations, has contributed to the current crisis in Central America in many ways. It has a role to play in remedying it.</blockquote>
As are the solutions, the causes of instability in Central America's Northern Triangle are complex. I have little confidence in the Trump, Hernandez, Morales, and Sanchez Ceren administrations working together to address the root causes of the instability and the needs of those who have already been displaced. However, these are a number of more limited policies and investments that could make life better for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of the region's people.<br />
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Christine includes some of those policies in her article as does <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/el-salvador/2018-11-07/migration-disconnect?cid=soc-tw-rdr">Stephanie Leutert</a> in <i>Foreign Affairs. </i>Victoria Sanford also had a good op-ed in the <i>New York Times</i> with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/09/opinion/trump-caravan-migrants-criminals.html">‘Criminals?’ Hardly. That’s Who the Caravan Flees</a>.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-66715705176509193162018-11-12T10:23:00.000-05:002018-11-12T10:23:00.122-05:00Nayib Bukele comfortably ahead in the polls?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I recently spoke with Ximena Enríquez of <i>Americas Quarterly</i> about next year's presidential elections in <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/will-el-salvadors-nayib-bukele-be-next-social-media-president">Will El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele Be the Next Social Media President?</a> El Salvador's two-party system has lost some steam over the last several years as Salvadorans have lost confidence in the FMLN and ARENA to resolve the country's problems. FMLN governance has been a disappointment and ARENA has done little to regain citizen trust.<div>
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There's a strong chance that former San Salvador mayor Nayib Bukele will capitalize on the two main parties' failures to become the first non-FMLN / non-ARENA president since Jose Napoleon Duarte (another former mayor of San Salvador). Although he might not be able to win a fist round victory against FMLN (Hugo Martinez) and ARENA (Carlos Calleja) candidates, recent public opinion polls have Bukele comfortably ahead by 30 percentage points.</div>
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You can read the entire story <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/will-el-salvadors-nayib-bukele-be-next-social-media-president">here</a>.</div>
Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8929513019181240765.post-13646884209552284292018-11-05T12:12:00.002-05:002018-11-05T12:12:33.599-05:00'A human tragedy'<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I spoke with CNN's Catherine Shoichet in <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/americas/migrant-theories-experts-midterms/index.html">Forget conspiracy theories about migrants. Here's what experts say is going on. And it's not about the midterms</a>. Here is some of what Catherine and I spoke about.<br />
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The situation is complicated, Allison said.</blockquote>
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"There are contradictory things that we're still trying to tease out about the root causes," he said.</blockquote>
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In Honduras, for example, the murder rate -- one factor analysts typically cite when they study why people migrate -- has been declining.</blockquote>
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But despite the lingering questions about these large groups forming, Allison said the most important thing to do right now isn't to pinpoint why they're leaving; it's to address the humanitarian crisis that's emerging as they make the trek.</blockquote>
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"These are people who really, with the information that they have available to them, have decided that this is their best opportunity. It's not something they take lightly. It's not something we should think they're being manipulated by Honduran politicians or US politicians to do," he said.</blockquote>
You can read the rest of the article <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/americas/migrant-theories-experts-midterms/index.html">here</a>.Mike Allisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03819823480024681083noreply@blogger.com1