Carlos Mendoza at CABI has an update on homicide rates in Guatemala following up on my concerns about what population numbers people are using to establish a rate per 100,000 for 2012. He says that the Interior Ministry is using 15,354,000 for 2011 and 16,168,000 Guatemalans for 2012. That gives them 37 per 100,000 in 2011 and 32 per 100,000 in 2012.
Carlos and everyone else from what I have read, use the National Institute of Statistics' estimates of 14,713,000 in 2011 and 15,073,000 in 2012. They come up with 39 per 100,000 in 2011 and 34 per 100,000 in 2012.
Honestly, I don't know whose population estimates are more accurate. It is safe to say, however, that no matter which estimates one uses, the homicide rate dropped significantly for a third year in a row. It is somewhere between 32 and 35 per 100,000 Guatemalans. It was only in 2009 that the rate was at 46 per 100,000 (INE population numbers; lower if using the Interior Ministry's numbers).
Someone on Twitter wrote that Guatemala is no longer in the top 10 homicide countries in the world. I don't remember who but that's obviously a good sign of progress in Guatemala.
The daily homicide rate for 2012 ends at 14.18 which is down from the 15.56 recorded in 2011. Both are a far cry from the 25 daily homicides that candidate Otto Perez Molina claimed the country was experiencing in 2011.
