Given the temporary gains by the government in and the long-term advantages gained by the gangs, the negotiations could have the opposite effect of what the government wanted. If the gangs break the truce and kill at previous rates, the government will have no choice but to begin a significant crackdown for which there is no stomach. If the truce holds, the gangs could develop into political actors whose influence in more sophisticated criminal activities could increase dramatically. Either way, there is a risk the situation could get worse over the long term.I don't agree with all of his analysis but it's worth checking out. I think that there's a strong likelihood that thousands of gang members will return to action at some point and the government is going to have to respond appropriately.
However, I don't think that this is right - " the government will have no choice but to begin a significant crackdown for which there is no stomach." It's in everyone's best interest to try to prevent as many as possible from returning to violence. Don't pursue a policy that is going to ensure that nobody can make it out.
