Thursday, May 24, 2012

Salvadorans say the country isn't doing so good

According to a recent survey by La Prensa Grafica, 64% of Salvadorans believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Only 20% say it is going in the right direction. Fifty-one percent say that the security situation is the main problem confronting the country while 36% say it is the economy.

And just like past surveys where Salvadorans don't have many good things to say about the economic or security situation, they are not blaming President Mauricio Funes for their problems. Sixty-five percent approve of the job he is doing. That's 6% lower than his LPG February rating, but 65% is 65%. That's pretty impressive after three years given that he is opposed by both the FMLN and ARENA.

In looking ahead to 2014, 29% intend to vote ARENA and 26% the FMLN.

One third of the respondents say that the candidate chosen by each party will be key to their vote. When asked their opinion of certain individuals that might be 2014 presidential candidates, 67% gave ARENA mayor of San Salvador Norman Quijano the highest marks. Funes comes in at 65% but he can't run in 2014.
People also hold positive opinions of Wil Salgado, the mayor of San Miguel. The GANA mayor comes in 57%. ARENA deputies Ana Vilma de Escobar is at 41% and Edwin Zamora at 20%. The FMLN's Hugo Martinez is at 23%.

Former president of the country Tony Saca has 53%. Saca used to represent ARENA before he was kicked out of the party. He is now the force behind GANA. It remains unbelievable that people still hold such a favorable opinion of Saca.

Forty-eight percent has a favorable opinion of Oscar Ortiz, the FMLN mayor of Santa Tecla. Ortiz would be a strong candidate for the FMLN as he is popular among its base, the population at large, and possibly even the Salvadoran population here in the US.

Thirty-eight percent have a favorable opinion of Vice President Salvador Sanchez Ceren, the FMLN's likely candidate in 2014. However, he receives the highest negative opinions of any person listed at 29%. The good news for the FMLN is that the percentage of respondents holding a negative opinion of Sanchez Ceren has declined over the last year even though those giving him a positive evaluation hasn't really changed. (Saca has the next highest percentage of negative opinions at 18%).

It looks like the right has plenty of candidates that can seriously win in 2014 - Quijano, Salgado, Saca, and de Escobar. If the FMLN wants to win, Ortiz is clearly its best candidate. However, like Schafik Handal in 2006, Sanchez Ceren deserves to be the nominee as sort of a lifetime achievement award. The FMLN brand is strong but I'm not sure whether it is strong enough to overcome a Sanchez Ceren candidacy.