According to InSight Crime, 2011 is lining up to be a terrible year for Honduras and El Salvador.
Honduras is on track to reach a murder rate of 86 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2011, while El Salvador could see a rate of 72 per 100,000, according to new reports.
On the other hand, August was another relatively nonlethal month for Guatemala and the country is on track to have somewhere between 39 and 40 murders per 100,000.
Granted these estimates assume that murders occur at roughly the same rate for the remaining months as they occurred during the first eight months of the year. That's a big if especially considering that the last few months tend to be more violent, at least in Guatemala.
However, at what point do reporters and analysts stop lumping Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras together as the murderous northern triangle?
At a minimum, it looks like El Salvador and Honduras should be discussed in one extreme category with rate over 70 per 100,000.
Guatemala and Belize should follow in a second, still dangerous, but less severe category with 40 per 100,000.
Finally, Nicaragua and Costa Rica comprise the third and final category with a rate just over 10.