Guatemala's government says opponents are conspiring against it and could be preparing to oust President Alvaro Colom.
In advertisements published in local newspapers Thursday, Colom's administration says Guatemala could face a "break with institutional order equal to what they did in Honduras."
Former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya was ousted in a June 2009 coup.Three questions/thoughts:
The ads did not specifically mention a coup, or identify the purported plotters.
But the ad said "there are groups of businessmen, politicians, mafias and criminals that have joined in a common strategy" to "erode" and "wear down" the government.
Colom has faced criticism over violent crime, and an anti-poverty aid program that critics say lacks transparency.
- From what I understand, Zelaya moved further to the left as he lost support from the middle and upper classes. It was more of a calculated move than an ideological one. BTW, I'm not positive that this is entirely accurate - maybe RAJ can weigh in. Is the recent attack against the media and the economic elite the first indication (not really the first, but oh well) of Colom's shift to the left in preparation for next year's election?
- For Zelaya, there was fear that he was attacking the privilege of some members of the economic elite. In Guatemala, Colom talks about taking on the economic elite (tax reform anybody?), but he hasn't been able to accomplish much and probably won't for the remainder of his term. It just seems like they have to wait him out. Interestingly enough, this is what I was told in 2007. Should Colom win, the elites are simply going to obstruct and wait him out.
- Things are more than likely to escalate if Sandra Colom is nominated as UNE's presidential candidate rather than someone like José Roberto Alejos Cámbara (the president of the congress).
- If there is a coup attempt, will the people, the military, the US, and the rest of the international community stand by the rule of law like they did with Jorge Serrano's autogolpe in 1993?