The victory of the FMLN in El Salvador's presidential elections of March 2009 has been considered remarkable, given the dominance of ARENA in four consecutive presidential races from 1989 to 2004. Using individual-level data, this article examines the determinants of electoral support for both parties over the past 15 years. Several statistical models illuminate some of the factors that led to ARENA's dominance and ultimate defeat. A combination of variables associated with different theoretical models of voting helps explain the choices made by Salvadoran voters over the years. The most consistent predictors of vote have been voters' self-reported ideology and their evaluation of the incumbent government's performance. The 2009 turnaround relates to fundamental changes in the national and international context, and also to the selection of candidates.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Ideology and Postwar Elections in El Salvador
Dinorah Azpuru has a new article in Latin American Politics and Society that's chock full of interesting tidbits about politics in postwar El Salvador. Here's the abstract of "The Salience of Ideology: Fifteen Years of Presidential Elections in El Salvador" (Gated):