Monday, June 28, 2010

Honduras and Moving On

Boz has a new commentary on the coup in Honduras. 
I am someone who believes Honduras needs to move forward today. I think the hemisphere would be better off if governments recognized the Lobo presidency with its flaws rather than tried to isolate it from international institutions. But I’ve never said it would or should be easy. It’s going to take time and effort....
Whether it’s a coup against a democratic government or a defense of democracy against an autocratic executive or some place in between, nobody should overthrow a government outside of an election and expect things to return to normal the following week. It’s going to be hard. It should be hard. For the good of the hemisphere, anyone who thinks otherwise needs to look at Honduras one year after the coup and learn that lesson.
I can't say that I agree.  In the short-term, I think that moving beyond the coup might be good for the hemisphere.  The US and Latin American could concentrate on trade and development issues, drug trafficking, migration, etc. 

On the other hand, the long-term damage might be disastrous.  Some US officials hoped that Zelaya's removal would convince other regional leaders not to use extraconstitutional means to prolong their stay in power.  I'm not sure that that's the primary lesson. 

If the countries of the region as a whole come around to recognizing the new government without further steps towards reconciliation on its part, I think the lesson learned will be that you are going to pay a price for overthrowing a democratically elected president, but it is going to be one that you can bear.  

In addition, putting the coup behind so that the hemisphere can move forward doesn't really take into consideration a large percentage of the Honduran people want.  I don't know, I can't say that I'm convinced.