Prison Attacks and Potential Instability in Guatemala

Several attacks against prison employees have been carried out in Guatemalan in the last few days.  Last Thursday, MS-13 members held a warden and three or four guards hostage.  They negotiated the hostages in exchange for the return of several MS-13 gang leaders that had earlier been moved to another facility.  Following the agreement, the prison officials reneged on the deal.

The MS-13 promised to retaliate against what they considered “a joke.”  Since the failed hostage exchange,

A National Civilian Police officer was killed and four prison guards were wounded when gunmen attacked an official vehicle transporting inmates on a highway in Chimaltenango, a province in northwestern Guatemala, officials said...

A prison guard was killed and another wounded earlier in the day when assailants opened fire on them as they were traveling in an official vehicle, officials said.

The attack occurred about 200 meters (some 220 yards) from a military barracks in Guatemala City, police and national prison service spokesmen told reporters.

Last year, ten prison employees were murdered and so far this year three prison guards have been killed in Guatemala. 

Following the recent events in Jamaica, Boz wonders whether there are any other countries on the edge of instability in the Western Hemisphere.  I can't say that Guatemala is that close to the edge, but one shouldn't discount further instability in the country between now and the 2011 elections.  Some of the issues that Guatemala has to manage include

• Retaliation from shadowy forces as CICIG continues its work.
• The movement of Mexican cartels into Guatemala.
• MS-13 and other gangs (drugs, extortion, murder, etc.).
• Sandra Torres de Colom as a potential presidential candidate.
• A food and energy crisis.
• The prosecution of individuals responsible for gross human rights violations during the civil war.
• The inability of the US and Latin America to deter and/or rollback the coup in Honduras.
• Lack of US immigration reform.

One had hoped that the resolution of the Rosenberg murder would have set Guatemala on the right path.  I'm hopeful, but not betting on it.  Which country is your pick?